Dubya Gets A Boost

Tiny Delaware gave a shoulder up to George W. Bush, a pat on the back to John McCain and a smack in the face to Steve Forbes.

Almost 30,000 Republicans sent those messages in Delaware's primary Tuesday. Fifty-one percent of GOP voters opted for Texas Governor George W. Bush, which was no surprise. But elbowing into second spot was the hottest property of the primary season, John McCain, who's so hot he won 25 percent of the vote without even campaigning in the state.

Limping into third, despite a considerable investment of ego and money, was Steve Forbes, who won in Delaware in 1996. This time around, he scraped together a meager 20 percent.

It was a bit of a hollow victory for Bush, since his real competition was a no-show. McCain's decision to head straight to South Carolina makes that state the next real proving ground on February 19.

But a win is a win, and it feels good. It allows Bush to say he's won three of the four contests held so far - you'd forgotten about Alaska, hadn't you? - and to point out that he picked up more delegates in Delaware (12) than McCain did in New Hampshire (10). "We're in the delegate business, and I think we did pretty darn well," Bush asserted.

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In exit polls, voters most often chose moral values as the top issue. And 59 percent of those voters opted for Bush. He also did well with voters worried about Social Security and Medicare, and with voters who care about world affairs.

McCain's second-place finish is all the more impressive when you recall thaDelaware, unlike New Hampshire, has a closed primary - only registered Republicans voted. So there were no maverick-minded independents wandering into McCain's camp. While Bush won the moderate vote, McCain attracted just enough moderates and self-described independents to place.

Over a quarter of the voters said what they want most in a candidate is for him to stand up for what he believes. As he did in New Hampshire, McCain won those people 37 percent, compared to 28 percent each for Bush and Forbes, respectively.

McCain lapped up the good news while he was campaigning in South Carolina. "It's really got to be remarkable to get these kinds of numbers in a primary in which you didn't even appear in the state," he reflected. "We never even went there. We didn't spend a penny there."

So seductive was the New Hampshire bounce that McCain did better than Bush or Forbes among people who made up their minds in the last week.

But there's no guarantee that McCain will bounce merrily into South Carolina. Those voters will have more time to watch the bloom fade from the rose. They're also getting treated to a full slate of sniping television ads, as Bush and McCain try to persuade voters that the other guy is the real snake.

When you lose to a shadow, it would seem hard to keep your head up. But if anyone can do it, Forbes can. He already has an alibi. Maintaining the most expensive whine of the year, Forbes complained earlier Tuesday that the "elites" had opened only 28 polling places in the state so they could make it harder for folks to get out and vote; thus, by implication, cheating Forbes of the victory he rightfully deserved.

Well, Delaware's turnout was low (a sad 5 percent of eligible voters), but the guess here is that polling places had nothing to do with it. Forbes' issues aren't resonating as well as he'd hoped. While he won among voters who care most about taxes, exit polls show those voters comprised only 26 percent of the total. And anti-abortion voters ignored Forbes' pure message for Bush's somewhat more ambiguous one.

Even before Delaware, some observers were saying Forbes should stop dreaming the impossible dream and withdraw. Bush has enough to worry about with McCain, and Forbes is stealing votes from Bush, not McCain. Perhaps Delaware will prove to be the mouse that roared into Forbes' ear, proclaiming, "Stop the madness."

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