Draft History Doesn't Bode Well for Strasburg
Trivia question: Who are Luke Hochevar, Matt Bush, Bryan Bullington and Matt Anderson?
They aren't household names but they have one thing in common - all were pitchers selected as the top overall pick in the Major League Baseball draft.
Where are they now? Hochevar is 18-30 with a 5.65 ERA in his brief career with the Royals; Bullington was recently demoted to the minors; Anderson finished an injury-plagued career with a 5.19 ERA; and Bush is currently languishing in the Tampa Bay farm system - with no indication he will be called up.
Which brings us to Stephen Strasburg, the 21-year-old phenom and top pick in last year's draft. He makes his major league debut tonight for the Washington Nationals with more hype than any baseball player in recent history.
Scouts say Strasburg is destined for greatness in the big leagues. His fastball has been clocked at 100mph. His curve buckles knees. His brief minor league resume is indisputable: 7-2 with a 1.30 ERA, 65 strikeouts and 13 walks in 55 1-3 innings.
But Strasburg will make his debut under the shadow of previous "sure things" like Paul Wilson (top overall pick by the Mets in '94) and Brien Taylor (number one pick by the Yankees in '91). Wilson retired after a forgettable, injury-marred career. Taylor, who signed for $1.55 million, has the distinction of being one of only two top picks never to make the big leagues.
In fact, of the 12 pitchers selected first in the draft since 1980, only three had solid (if unspectacular) careers: Andy Benes, Tim Belcher and Mike Moore (all drafted in the 80s). The only one who seems on track to have a career worthy of his lofty draft status is 2007's top overall pick David Price, who this year is 8-2 with a 2.29 ERA for Tampa.
It is reasonable to expect that Strasburg, barring injury, will fare better than most of his draft-cursed pitching cohorts. But baseball is arguably the toughest sport to scout and the draft has proven to be at best an inexact science, at worst a crap shoot.
Which brings us to another trivia question: What do Johann Santana, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb have in common?
All are recent Cy Young award winners.
And none was drafted in the first seven rounds of the Major League Baseball draft.