Does He Know The Way To San Jose?

Donald Casper equates campaign analysis to sports commentary - you can't know what's happening inside the huddle.

But the San Francisco Republican Party chairman has his opinions about George W. Bush's campaign in California.

"I fear my candidate may be tripping up," he said.

Bush's all-consuming struggle against Arizona Senator John McCain in South Carolina is creating ripple effect in places like California, which have been largely ignored by the Republican front-runner. Bush hasn't set foot in the state since November.
"There's something counterintuitive about not campaigning in the nation's largest state," said Casper, who still supports the Texas governor.

Though Bush's attention may be divided for the moment, his campaign believes he can make it up to supporters like Casper. Bush plans to spend at least five days here between the presidential primary in South Carolina and the March 7 California primary. His campaign also launched statewide television ads this week.

The Bush organization in the Golden State is "well-organized and broad", said Alixe Glen Mattingly, a campaign spokeswoman. She said the campaign has built a network of 10,000 volunteers and enjoys the support of a majority of the state's Republican leadership.

But Bush's highest-ranking GOP supporter in California, Secretary of State Bill Jones, switched his endorsement to McCain on Monday, in a move that could foreshadow more defections if Bush stumbles in South Carolina and Michigan.

Though the Texas governor once enjoyed a 40-point lead over McCain in California, the gap has narrowed in recent weeks. Yet Bush sent a surrogate in his place to the California Republican Party's state convention two weeks ago. McCain did attend, still basking in the glow of his New Hampshire victory.

The question of Bush's commitment to the state was raised again after The San Francisco Chronicle reported the Texan may be ducking a debate scheduled for March 2 in Los Angeles.

Mattingly couldn't comment on specific debate appearances by Bush, but said he will "definitely debate here."

A senior adviser to McCain says his candidate welcomes every opportunity to reach California's 15 million registered voters, and that includes debates. The campaign is also running television ads statewide, spending roughly $750,000 a week here.

"McCain has really put a huge emphasis on California, so I don't see him cutting corners," says Ken Khachigian.

McCain has also spent relatively little time here. But like Bush, his campaign plans a handful of visits before the California primary.

Both men have their work cut out for them.

Even if California Democrats and independents cross over to McCain in large numbers, he'll have a tough time winning the primary. Though the state has an open primary, only votes that candidates receive from their respective parties determine who wins the state's delegates to the national cnvention. About eight in ten registered Republicans favor Bush.

But Republicans like Donald Casper worry Bush could still lose the popular vote to McCain.

"It's going to devalue Bush's winbecause he will appear to be 'Mr. Inside.' And it will bolster McCain's claim as an outsider." Casper adds that outcome would also suggest that Bush can't win California in November.

Some moderate Republicans appear to be growing disenchanted with Bush, too.

"The attractiveness of George W. Bush early on," said long-time GOP strategist Allan Hoffenblum, "is that he would be able to bring back voters the party's been losing."

Hoffenblum says Bush was seen as a "unifying candidate." But that was before the brawling started in South Carolina, where Bush's campaign has taken on an abrasive and ultra-conservative tone.

"We're all sitting back in California going, 'What's going on here?' The assumption that he could win has all but evaporated."