Could Rand Paul be the 2016 GOP presidential nominee?

Twice, former Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference - in 2010 and 2011.

Both times, Paul's victory was dismissed by most Republican political pros as a fluke - a product of the unique cross-section of the conservative movement represented at CPAC. Paul had his supporters, they conceded, but he was ultimately a gadfly. He could not win the GOP presidential nomination, and if he somehow accomplished that impossible task, he most certainly could not win the presidency.

And both times, those political pros were right: Ron Paul's straw poll victories evinced a passionate core of disciples who were never able to turn him into a viable presidential candidate.

But after Ron Paul's son, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., won this year's CPAC straw poll on Saturday, some in the GOP are wondering whether the younger Paul is shaping up to be a far more formidable force in the party than his father ever was.

And that question quickly gives rise to another: Could Rand Paul actually be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee?

The answer, according to a handful of GOP strategists, is maybe. But it's probably too early to tell, and it will depend greatly on the direction taken by the GOP - and Paul - over the next several years, they say.

"I think he has a ways to go before he would be considered a viable candidate," said veteran Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. "He's already impressing conservative voters," but "it's a long way to go."

"Does he have potential? Of course," added Bonjean.

"I think he represents a paradigm shift," said an adviser to both Pauls who declined to be named so he could discuss a Rand Paul bid more candidly. "He's the first candidate to represent a new political philosophy since Ronald Reagan was the ideological champion of conservatives."

According to the adviser, Paul is already laying the groundwork for a potential bid - his team has "already had two meetings" about 2016, and Paul's recent trip to Israel is further evidence of his aspiration. "You don't go to Israel like he did," the adviser said, "unless you're already exploring some of that territory."

And at this early stage, the adviser said, Rand Paul is already more viable than his father ever was.

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The younger Paul, unlike his father, is a statewide official - elected in 2010 to Kentucky's open Senate seat after routing the handpicked primary candidate of the powerful dean of the state GOP, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Ron Paul, by contrast, represented a deeply conservative House district in Texas, rarely facing a competitive election and freed by supportive constituents to sit out on whichever political limb he saw fit.

As a result of his larger platform, Rand Paul has had to be more politically adroit than his dad was. On foreign policy, in particular, the younger Paul has carved out a distinct voice for himself. He recently declared at a speech at the Heritage Foundation that he is neither an isolationist nor a neoconservative, but a "realist," distancing himself from both the isolationism that handicapped his father and the aggressive interventionism of Bush-era Republicans.

He has also softened his tone on ending foreign aid, particularly aid to Israel. During a recent trip there, according to the Jerusalem Post, Paul said he would still elect to eventually end all foreign aid, but "I would start a little more quickly with those who are enemies of Israel and enemies of the U.S.... With regards to Israel, it could be a gradual phenomenon."

These and other signs of flexibility from Rand Paul are emblematic of the central political struggle facing his potential 2016 candidacy: if he is to emerge as a viable presidential candidate in four years, he will need to navigate a treacherous tightrope, tapping into his father's supporters but keeping a respectful distance from some of the rougher edges of the elder Paul's platform to build a broader following.

"He's way more political than his dad ever was," observed Bonjean. "He is playing his cards well by trying to work with tea party Republicans as well as the Republican leadership."

"I think his father was needlessly provocative at times," the Paul adviser added. "Rand Paul says the same thing" as his dad, the adviser explained, but he says it more artfully, with greater awareness of potential controversy.

Bonjean agreed that Paul's balancing act is more a matter of optics than concrete policy changes: "I don't think he's more moderate, I just think he's more political."

But despite a political dexterity greater than his father's, Rand Paul is also no stranger to provocation. He sparked a fierce row during his Senate campaign in 2010 when he suggested to MSNBC's Rachel Maddow that the Civil Rights Act of the 1960s unfairly abridged states' rights, and he is likely to be asked about that and other controversial remarks if and when he launches a bid.

Moreover, there's no guarantee that Ron Paul's supporters would follow Rand Paul into the mainstream - by tempering his platform to attract more establishment support to his candidacy, he risks alienating the die-hard supporters that propelled his father's campaigns.

There's also the problem of Rand Paul's Republican Senate colleagues and potential 2016 rivals, particularly Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., both tea party favorites who could speak to Paul's base of supporters but avoid being pigeonholed by the Paul name.

Like Paul, Cruz and Rubio both waged successful insurgent campaigns to claim their Senate seats, defeating establishment-picked primary candidates and becoming conservative darlings in the process.

Cruz, in particular, has emerged alongside Paul as a high-profile opponent of the Obama administration's drone policy. He joined Paul in filibustering the nomination of CIA Director John Brennan and has also earned plaudits from the conservative base for his shellacking of recent gun control proposals. If Paul begins to seem torn between his libertarian base and the establishment, Cruz could conceivably step in to usurp Paul's supporters without provoking angst among the old guard.

Ultimately, however, the fact that more Republicans are co-opting Paul's brand of conservatism could work to his benefit. The old guard is hardly running the show any more, and some analysts have observed that the GOP seems to be moving in Paul's direction: less muscular, less interventionist on foreign policy, more laissez-faire on social policy. That shift among Republicans could place Paul more squarely in the center of GOP public opinion by the time 2016 comes around.

"When he made his filibuster on the drone issue," Bonjean noted, "The Republican leadership, including Mitch McConnell, joined in, because he was igniting enthusiasm."

Regardless of how the next few years play out, Bonjean said, Paul has his work cut out for him: "He has to do more than just hold a filibuster on the floor...He still has to continue to lay out the policies he stands for and keep building on that foundation before he'd be considered a real candidate."

"There's a lot of things that could trip him up," added the Paul adviser. "It's a hazardous marathon."