Christine O'Donnell Threatens Mike Castle - and Perhaps GOP Prospects - in Delaware
Tomorrow is primary day in Delaware, and what was expected to be an unexceptional Republican Senate race has turned into an unpredictable battle between moderate and conservative Republicans that could significantly impact the GOP's 2010 electoral chances.
Republican Rep. Mike Castle,who has represented Delaware's only congressional district for 18 years, was for months the presumptive Republican nominee for Joe Biden's old Senate seat. But an initially insignificant primary challenge from Christine O'Donnell has gained momentum.
O'Donnell has the backing of the Tea Party Express, the California-based group that propelled conservative Joe Miller to a primary victory over sitting Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. The group has pledged to spend $250,000 for O'Donnell's campaign. Skeptical of O'Donnell's chances of success in the general election -- Democrats hold a nearly two-to-one registration advantage in Delaware -- the Republican establishment quickly got behind Castle.
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Castle's camp wasted no time going negative, while some conservative commentators like John McCormack of the Weekly Standard have continued to scrutinize the controversial elements of O'Donnell's past, such a gender discrimination lawsuit she filed.
FreedomWorks, the conservative political advocacy group that facilitates many Tea Party events, told reporters today that it sees O'Donnell as a weak candidate. "We stayed out of that race because we're not convinced that Christine O'Donnell can win," FreedomWorks president Matt Kibbe said, the Hill reports.
Former House Republican leader Dick Armey, who chairs FreedomWorks, added that Tea Partiers would rather win a congressional seat with a mainstream Republican than lose to a Democrat with a Tea Party conservative.
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The support O'Donnell has received, however, suggests that Armey's fellow conservatives either disagree with him, or they have more faith in O'Donnell's general election viability. Last week O'Donnell received Sarah Palin's endorsement, as well as nods of support from conservative Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and the National Rifle Association.
The outside support propping up O'Donnell's campaign has spurred the Wilmington News Journal editorial board, as well as Delaware's Republican Party Chairman Tom Ross, to grumble that outsiders should stay out of Delaware's business.
"It is just unbelievable that you would have folks from out of state who know nothing about Delaware, nothing about Christine O'Donnell and nothing about the dynamics of this state to come in and associate themselves with this person," Ross reportedly said. "Quite frankly, I don't know what the goal is here. If they really want to see conservatives as chairmen of committees in the United States Senate, they'd step back and allow Mike Castle to become the next United States senator. He'll win the general election. She won't."
As Ross suggested, more than just Delaware's representation in the Senate is at stake. The New York Times reports that depending on the outcome of the GOP primary, as well as the outcome of tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire, "Republican chances of taking over the Senate could be enhanced or significantly diminished."
Castle told the Washington Post that his internal polling shows he is "fine." However, Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, which conducts automated polls, released a poll yesterday showing O'Donnell leading Castle 47 percent to 44 percent. The results, within the poll's margin of error, have left some Castle supporters unnerved. Politico's Ben Smith shares an e-mail from a worried GOP insider in Delaware who writes, "Christine O'Donnell is a horrifying candidate, will lose the seat, and it is a bad trade."
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