Chat with David Martin

On May 13, 1999, CBS News and the America Online audience chatted with CBS News National Security Correspondent David Martin about the crisis in Yugoslavia.

Audience question: Yugoslav officials claim they are pulling troops out of Kosovo, but some Western officials have gone so far as to suggest that this is a sham. What's going on?

David Martin: Right now it looks like this withdrawal was nothing more than a glorified photo-op. A couple of hundred troops and their equipment did leave Kosovo, but there is no indication that the Serb army has begun even a partial withdrawal from Kosovo. They had 40,000 troops in Kosovo at the start of the air war, so pulling out a couple hundred is pretty insignificant. It's obviously being done by Milosevic in an effort to increase pressure on NATO to order a bombing pause. A bombing pause is probably Milosevic's number one priority right now because he figures that once the bombing stops it will be hard for NATO to muster the political will to restart it.

Audience question: The mayor of Nis asked Milosevic to write a plan for Kosovo and give a list of cost of lives lost. Will that ever happen or is Milosevic too arrogant to compromise with NATO?

David Martin: Is Milosevic too arrogant to compromise? I think a compromise is what he's angling for right now. But, the compromise he wants would allow him to keep troops in Kosovo and would put restrictions on the peacekeeping force sent in to Kosovo. If he could get that compromise I think he'd take it in a minute.

Audience question: Don't you think that NATO appears cowardly when it conducts an air war, but is not willing to send ground forces to: 1) rescue the Albanians starving inside Kosovo, and 2) to expel Serb forces? Is the greatest military force too spineless to lose men?

David Martin: I don't think it's a question of the greatest military force being spineless. I think it's a question of the political leaders of NATO countries believing they could not get the domestic political support for sending in ground troops. Whether that's spineless or simply bowing to political reality, I guess, is a matter of opinion.

Audience question: Why is NATO not willing to have only the UN in Kosovo as peacekeeping troops?

David Martin: Because the members of NATO had a terrible experience with a UN peace keeping force in Bosnia. It was too lightly armed and it did not have authority to do anything other than protect itself. As a consequence it did almost nothing to stop the war in Bosnia. What stopped the war in Bosnia was bombing, and 60,000 heavily armed NATO - not UN - peace keeping troops and that is the model: bomb first then send in heavily rmed peace keepers under NATO command. That is being followed today in Kosovo. Whether it works remains to be seen.

Audience question: I was wondering to what extent Yugoslavia perceives that Russia will pressure NATO enough such that NATO will back down ?

David Martin: I think Milosevic sees Russia as his main diplomatic hope. Russia can pressure NATO in the sense that NATO does not want to irreparably damage its relations with Russia, so it will try hard to accommodate Russia. And Milosevic is hoping that in the process of accommodating Russia, NATO will accommodate him.

Audience question: Are we actively targeting Serb troops or just stationary targets?

David Martin: Both. They go after about 40 or 50 fixed targets each night, if the weather is good. But they also send up planes looking for targets of opportunity like a tank rolling down the road. Last night, for instance, they hit more than 20 of these targets of opportunity.

Audience question: Yesterday Yeltsin fired Primakov. Today Yeltsin faced the beginning of his impeachment trial. How will Russia's political shakeup affect the search for a diplomatic solution to the crisis?

David Martin: It can only hurt it. To the extent that hard liners in Moscow are gaining ascendency, Russia will be less interested in making any deals with NATO. But even if there is just political confusion in Moscow that will obviously have an effect on Russia's attempts to broker a deal. For all the diplomatic activity, it's not at all clear that any real progress was being made. Now with all the turmoil in Moscow, it is even less clear.

Audience question: We are now 10 days or so from the 60 day limitation imposed by the War Powers Act. Are we finally going to see this thing invoked, or will Congress abdicate it's war powers once again?

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David Martin: Well, I guess that's a question I don't have a good answer for. So far Congress has supported the war by paying for it, but members of Congress always watch the polls and the one poll I've seen, a CBS News poll, shows at least half the people think it's time to negotiate with Milosevic. So if the public is getting tired of the war, Congress will get tired of it too and invoking the war powers act would be one way to do it. But as you know, there is a huge debate over wether the war powers act is constitutional and all administrations say it's not. So, invoking the war powers act is not likely to end the war.

Audience question: What's the significance of Milosevic's refusal to meet with Mary Robinson, the top UN human rights official?

David Martin: This is interesting. Of course, I don't know what was in Milosevic's mind but her first stated purpose was to tell him what the world knows about the ethnic cleansing that was going on in Kosovo. That would put him on notice and he could no longer claim that he was ignorant of what was happening in Kosovo. I'm sure if he ever faces trial as a war criminal he will argue that he not only did not order the ethnic cleansing but didn't know it was going on and therefore didn't condone it. I can't prove that but I bet you his decision not to meet with Mary Robinson was an attempt to protect himself legally.

Audience question: Are we still considering sending in the Apaches even though two have crashed just recently?

David Martin: Yes, they are still considering it. But, if the US had it to do over again I don't think they would ever have sent the Apache's. The Apache's offer only slightly added fire power and greatly increase the risk of losing pilots. So, there is still great reluctance to use them.

Audience question: Are all of the NATO countries in agreement on how to handle Milosevic at this point in time?

David Martin: Yes and no. They all have publicly signed up to continuing the air war until he meets NATO's terms. There are though some countries which are desperate, maybe desperate is too strong a word, but certainly eager, to get this thing over with. The tourism season is starting and a war is not good for tourism. So countries like Italy and Greece have every reason to want to get out of this as soon as possible. So they may be more willing than other NATO countries to accept less than one hundred percent compliance with NATO's terms.

Audience question: We'll end with: What's NATO's game plan. On day 51, Milosevic doesn't seem anywhere near meeting NATO's terms. NATO can't bomb Yugoslavia indefinitely. What's NATO's out?

David Martin: Well, they have two game plans. One is that the damage to the Yugoslav army and its economy becomes so great that Milosevic decides to cut his losses and give in. The other is that the damage to the Serb military reaches the point that the Kosovar Liberation Army, the gorillas fighting for independence, starts winning on the battle field. What's wrong with that strategy is that it relies on somebody else to do something. It relies on Milosevic to give in or it relies on the KLA to start winning. You don't want to have a military strategy that is deendent on factors outside your control, but that is the price NATO paid when it decided not to back up its air war with the threat of a ground invasion.

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