CBS Poll: Social Security

Social Security and Medicare remain among the top issues that Americans want the government to deal with, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times Poll. Although the public remains dubious as to whether Social Security will provide benefits for them when they retire, there's greater optimism than just one year ago. And Americans may finally be willing to discuss options for revamping the system.

As has been the case for some time, Americans are unsure as to whether the Social Security system will have money available for them when they retire. 41 percent think the system will have money for them, while 45 percent think it will not. But there has been a real change in the past year. Last May, 29 percent of Americans said they thought the Social Security system would have money to provide them with benefits when they retire, and 55 percent thought it would not.

Uncertainty about Social Security is especially strong among younger Americans for whom retirement is still far off; 66 percent of Americans age 45 or under think the system will not have money for them.

WILL SOCIAL SECURITY HAVE MONEY FOR YOU?
	Total	45 and under	Over 45
Yes	41%	30%	54%
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No	45%	66%	20%

Part of the increase in optimism about Social Security may be because specific plans and options for reforming the system are currently under debate. Americans believe that tax cuts and saving Social Security can go hand-in-hand - a position strongly promoted by Texas Governor George W. Bush.

58 percent say it is possible to cut taxes while still preserving Medicare and Social Security, while 34 percent say it is not possible. 65 percent of Republicans think taxes can be cut and these programs can by continued, and 51 percent of Democrats say the same.

INVESTING SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES

The public shows some support for allowing individuals to invest their Social Security funds themselves - a Bush proposal. 51 percent of Americans think this is a good idea, and 45 percent think it is a bad idea.

INDIVIDUALS INVESTING SOCIAL SECURITY FUNDS
	Total	45 and under	Over 45
Good idea	51%	62%	38%
Bad idea	45%	34%	58%

Allowing people to invest their own Social Security taxes receives the most support from those age 45 and under, the same group that is most likely to think the system will not have the money available for their retirement. Nearly two thirds of those age 45 and under think permitting people to invest their Social Security tax money themselves is a good idea.

Americans who currently have investments in the stock market are also more likely to support allowing individuals to invest part of their own Social Security taxes. 56 percent of investors think such an idea is good, while 41 percent think it is a bad idea.

However, the public does not think the government should be expected to provide a safety net in this new scenario. 89 percent of Americans believe that those who invest their retirement funds have to accept the risk along with the reward. Only 8 percent believe the government has the responsibility to provide a safety net for people who invest their retirement money and then lose it.

While a majority support individual risk-taking, by a margin of more than two to one the public is opposed to the idea of permitting the government to invest the Social Security trust fund in the stock market. 69 percent of Americans think that allowing the government to invest some of the Social Security trust funding the stock market is a bad idea, and only 27 percent think it is a good idea. This view is held by both younger and older people alike.

GOVERNMENT INVESTING SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST FUND
	Total	45 and under	Over 45
Good idea	27%	31%	23%
Bad idea	69%	66%	72%

One reason for this opposition to the government investing the Social Security trust fund may be that the threat of losing money in the stock market is real to most Americans, despite public confidence in the current boom econmy. 67 percent think that the stock market is a risky investment, while only 26 percent think it is relatively safe.

SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Although the public supports allowing people to invest their retirement money themselves, the plan proposed by Bush, voters are somewhat more likely to think that Vice President Al Gore would do a better job dealing with Social Security. 47 percent of voters choose Gore, while 39 percent say that Bush would do a better job dealing with this issue.

Bush's Social Security proposal may have some impact on voter's choices this November. Among registered voters who support allowing individuals to invest their own Social Security taxes, 53 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush in November, and 33 percent support Gore. Voters who think this is a bad idea support Gore over Bush, by 46 percent to 41 percent.

SPENDING PRIORITIES

Discussions about the future of Social Security take on a different cast in light of the current budget surplus. When asked how to spend the budget surplus, shoring up Social Security is the top priority for most Americans. 54 percent say that the budget surplus should go to preserve programs like Medicare and Social Security, while 18 percent think the surplus should be used to pay down the national debt. Only 13 percent would like to see the surplus go to tax cuts, given a choice between the options. Even though 58 percent think both tax cuts and support for Social Security and Medicare are possible, few volunteer that combination when asked this question.

Social Security has been, and continues to be, an issue that is important to Americans. 8 percent name this problem as the top priority for government. It is especially pressing for those age 65 and over, 20 percent of whom say they want the government to address this issue first.