Can Romney move the needle with Latino voters?
(CBS News) Last week, in an interview with The Hill newspaper, the Romney campaign set a goal of 38 percent Latino support for the November election.
According to a recent poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo, however, the campaign has a ways to go before hitting that mark: The survey, conducted from August 16-20, shows Obama leading Romney 67 percent to 23 percent among Hispanics.
"In most cases for Republicans to perform very well among Hispanic voters past the 35, 38, or even 40 percent mark, they've been working with Hispanic communities for the length of career in their states," said Leslie Sanchez, a Republican strategist who specializes in trends affecting women and Hispanics. "Many Latino voters, especially open-minded independents, don't know Governor Romney [yet]."
This week, at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, the Romney campaign will try to change that: Even as the former Massachusetts governor officially accepts the nomination, the party will be ramping up its messaging and showcasing some of its most prominent Latino up-and-comers.
"There's a record number of Hispanic speakers at the convention," said Alexandra Franceschi, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee (RNC). Pointing to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's Thursday night timeslot introducing Romney, she added, "You see a lot of rising Hispanic stars within the Republican Party. You can see that the Republican message resonating with the community."
Franceschi said the Romney campaign would be releasing Spanish-language ads targeted specifically to Latino demographics, and noted that Romney had agreed to sit down with Univision host Jorge Ramos at a "Meet the Candidate" forum for the network. She also pointed out that "Juntos con Romney," the GOP's Latino outreach arm, has committees in 15 states and a national steering committee.
Even while the GOP plans to use the week's festivities to reinforce its commitment to the Latino community, many people believe the campaign's real push will come after the convention, when the Romney campaign is able to access fundraising money earmarked for the general election, and can flood the airwaves with increased advertising.
"When they get through with the convention, I think you'll see a real effort -- but it's not going to be easy and I don't think there's anybody that's kidding themselves about that," said Susan McManus, a professor at University of South Florida. "My guess is there's going to be a really powerful outreach on the part of Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush going forward. They're two very popular multilingual people here in our state, and I think they're going to be sent out on the road. The more multilingual interactions they can have with Hispanic voters, the better."
McManus says that if the campaign makes a serious effort to send Hispanic Republicans out to recruit young voters, they may well make inroads with non-traditional Republican Latino demographics - namely new voters, including those within the Puerto Rican community.
"There is an assumption that only Cuban Hispanics vote Republican, and I think that is changing a little bit," she said. "If anyone can help that effort, it's the younger faces like Rubio and George P. Bush and Susana Martinez. That's one of the keys of having the convention here - you can showcase the more diverse faces of the Republican Party."
Still, the real test, she says, is whether or not Romney is able to keep discussion focused on the economy - and away from immigration.
The economy vs. immigration
With most polls showing that Latinos, like most voters, prioritize issues like jobs and the economy this election, Republicans argue that it's primarily in this capacity that they must win over Hispanic voters.
"We do not have a monolithic view of immigration in the Latino community," said Sanchez. "The Democratic Party is most concerned about this because it was President Obama who promised to pass immigration reform and address it in his first year in office."
Sanchez argues that the Obama campaign is actually going to suffer from the immigration issue. Democratic Latinos, she says, have become disillusioned with the president for failing to live up to his campaign promises, leading to an enthusiasm gap among those voters. Even the Obama administration's June announcement that it would no longer be pursuing the deportation of many young, undocumented citizens in the U.S., she posited, would only give the president a minor bounce.
"Even with Dream 2.0, there's frustration among the Latino grassroots operatives leaders who know this is a short-term solution," Sanchez said.
She and other Republicans argue that it's concern over the economy, not immigration, that will sway Latino voters this fall.
Pointing out that the unemployment rate within Hispanic community is two points higher than the national average, Franceshi argued that Romney can and will reach out to voters about lifting the state of Latino economic livelihood.
"The Republican Party and Romney realize that the number one issue on Hispanic voters' minds, according to all of the polls, is jobs and the economy," said Franceschi. "The Hispanic community really has suffered under this economy, and the Republican message for a stronger middle-class is really going to resonate."
Democrats, of course, disagree. Democrats were dubious that the Romney campaign could come close to 38 percent of the Latino vote, and argued that in Florida, the Republican message to Latinos has so far been fractured and ineffective.
And there's reason to believe that the president's June immigration announcement will play well among Latino voters. According to a Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll from July, 66 percent of Florida voters support a form of immigration reform that would allow undocumented immigrants in the U.S. to remain in the country and apply for legal status, and 53 percent support Mr. Obama's deportation initiative. In South Florida, which boasts a large immigrant population, 63 percent support the president's recent move.
Meanwhile, Romney has come under fire from Latino activists for his tough stance on immigration, particularly during the Republican nominating process, during which he advocated the notion of "self-deportation" and said he would veto the DREAM Act, which most Hispanic voters support.
Even if Latinos are more concerned about the economy than immigration, the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll shows that they still favor Mr. Obama over Romney. Sixty-two percent of voters surveyed said they approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing overall, and 59 percent said they approved of his handling of the economy. Fifty-three percent said they think the president would be better than his rival in terms of having good ideas for dealing with the economy, while only 20 percent said the same of Romney.
Only 61 percent of Latinos indicated a high level of enthusiasm in the election, however, suggesting that both parties face an enthusiasm gap.
Romney's mission this week - and going forward - will be to boost the excitement among conservative Latinos.
"Turnout is always a challenge with Hispanic voters," said McManus. "Republicans haven't done as much as they're going to have to do."
According to Sanchez, Romney has an opportunity to capitalize on the Hispanic community's frustrations with the Obama administration -- but he has a fair amount of work ahead of him in getting even 35 percent of the Hispanic vote.
"Governor Romney has positioned himself to be competitive in big states where, increasingly, we see Latino swing voters," she said. "It's too soon to tell whether he's going to reach that milestone of 38 percent, but for him to be competitive, he has to pass that highwater mark of 35 percent." But, she said, "these are not overnight successes.
