Bush, Kerry Seen As Strong Leaders
OTHER DOMESTIC ISSUES: TAXES AND HEALTH CARE
Republicans traditionally have an advantage on tax issues, but few voters ever think any President will lower their taxes. Voters currently are more likely to view Kerry as someone who would raise their taxes, but a sizable number think Bush would raise them, too. 45 percent say their taxes will go up if Kerry is elected; while 42 percent say their taxes will stay the same. If Bush is re-elected, 36 percent think their taxes will increase, and 55 percent say they will stay the same.
Health care is mentioned more often than taxes as an issue voters care about. Like the tax issue, many voters see no difference between the candidates. Half think their health care costs will remain the same under either a Kerry administration or a second Bush administration. However, voters are over three times as likely to say their health care will become more affordable if Kerry is elected. 22 percent say their healthcare will be more affordable if Kerry becomes President, compared to just 6 percent who say this will happen if Bush is re-elected.
KERRY VS. BUSH: TAXES AND HEALTHCARE
(Registered Voters)
If Bush Is re-elected
Personal taxes will:
Go Up 36%
Go down 5%
Stay the same 55%
Your health care costs will:
Be more affordable 6%
Less affordable 39%
Stay the same 51%
If Kerry is elected
Personal taxes will:
Go up 45%
Go down 6%
Stay the same 42%
Your health care costs will:
Be more affordable 22%
Less affordable 22%
Stay the same 51%
ASSESSING THE CANDIDATES' PERSONAL QUALITIES
Both Bush and Kerry continue to be viewed as strong leaders, though perceptions of Bush as a leader have declined since March. Many voters have accepted the argument that Kerry is a flip-flopper: Bush still has an advantage over Kerry on saying what he believes. Although similar percentages of voters think each candidate shares their priorities, more think Bush does not share their priorities than think Kerry does not.
EVALUATIONS OF KERRY
(Registered Voters)
Strong qualities of leadership
Now 60%
7/2004 58%
Pre-Dem. Convention (3/2004) 61%
Shares your priorities
Now 43%
7/2004 47%
Pre-Dem. Convention (6/2004)
Doesn't share your priorities
Now 42%
7/2004 40%
Pre-Dem. Convention (6/2004) 47%
Says what he believes
Now34%
7/2004 35%
Pre-Dem. Convention (6/2004) 34%
EVALUATIONS OF BUSH
(Registered Voters)
Strong qualities of leadership
Now 59%
7/2004 58%
Pre-Dem. Convention (3/2004) 67%
Shares your priorities
Now 44%
7/2004 41%
Pre-Dem. Convention (6/2004) 41%
Doesn't share your priorities
Now 51%
7/2004 55%
Pre-Dem. Convention 55%
Says what he believes
Now 52%
7/2004 48%
Pre-Dem. Convention (6/2004) 58%
A positive sign for Kerry is that voters view him overall more favorably than not. 38 percent of voters now have a favorable opinion of John Kerry, 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and 27 percent are undecided or haven't heard enough about him.
OPINIONS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
(Registered voters)
John Kerry
Favorable 38%
Not favorable 34%
Undecided/Haven't heard 27%
George W. Bush
Favorable 43%
Not favorable 44%
Undecided/Haven't heard 13%
Opinions of Bush are more evenly divided. 43 percent have a favorable view of Bush, while 44 percent view him unfavorably.
THE VICE PRESIDENTS: EDWARDS AND CHENEY
Many voters remain unable to offer an opinion on Democratic Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards. But among those that can rate him, the view remains heavily favorable. 35 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while less than one in five views him unfavorably.
OPINIONS OF THE VP CHOICES
(Registered voters)
Edwards
Favorable
Now 35%
7/2004 35%
Not favorable
Now 19%
7/2004 18%
Undecided/Haven't heard
Now 45%
7/2004 46%
Cheney
Favorable
Now 29%
7/2004 31%
Not favorable
Now 37%
7/2004 35%
Undecided/Haven't heard
Now 33%
7/2004 33%
Voters' opinions of Vice President Dick Cheney are quite different. 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, while 28 percent have a favorable one. But a third of voters are still unable to offer an opinion of the Vice President.
Among the key group of Independent voters, opinions of Edwards are similar to voters overall: 30 percent have a favorable view of him; while 12 percent view him unfavorably. Opinions of Cheney, however, are more negative among Independents than among voters overall. 43 percent of Independents have an unfavorable opinion of Cheney, while just one in five has a favorable one.
PRESIDENTIAL ASSESSMENTS
As has been the case this year, a majority of Americans thinks the country is on the wrong track, and just two in five now say the country is headed in the right direction. Sentiments among voters are similar.
COUNTRY IS HEADED IN THE:
Right direction
All 39%
Community lost jobs 14%
Registered voters 41%
Wrong track
All 55%
Community lost jobs 80%
Registered voters 53%
Eight in ten of those who say their community has lost jobs in the last four years think the country has seriously gotten off on the wrong track.
Just 37 percent of Americans now approve of Bush's handling of the economy, and 40 percent approve of the President's handling of Iraq. Bush continues to receive his strongest approval rating for his handling of the campaign against terrorism, with 53 percent approving. His rating on foreign policy is unchanged from last month. Overall, 46 percent now approve of the way Bush is handling his job as President.
BUSH APPROVAL RATINGS
Overall
Now 46%
7/2004 44%
Handling terrorism
Now 53%
7/2004 52%
Handling foreign policy
Now 41%
7/2004 39%
Handling Iraq
Now 40%
7/2004 38%
Handling economy
Now 37%
7/2004 39%
ASSESSING IRAQ AND THE WAR ON TERRORISM
The war in Iraq continues to divide the country. Just under half of Americans - 49 percent - believe the invasion was the right thing to do. This number fell to under 50 percent last spring as U.S. military casualties began to mount, and has remained there below that level since. Today 44 percent say that looking back, the U.S. should have stayed out altogether.
U.S. ACTION AGAINST IRAQ:
Right thing
Now 49%
7/2004 45%
5/2004 49%
12/2003 64%
Should have stayed out
Now 44%
7/2004 47%
5/2004 45%
12/2003 28%
Views on the war remain partisan. Republicans in overwhelming numbers say it was the right thing to do; three out of four Democrats say they U.S. ought to have stayed out.
Americans continue to feel that the effort to bring peace to Iraq is going badly for the U.S.
HOW IS THE WAR IN IRAQ GOING FOR U.S.?
Well
Now 46%
7/2004 43%
5/2004 37%
12/2003 47%
Badly
Now 51%
7/2004 54%
5/2004 60%
12/2003 51%
And Americans do not perceive much of a payoff back home yet from the war in Iraq. More than 4 in 10 believe the war has actually increased the terror threat to the U.S. so far -- the opposite of its intended consequence. Another 40 percent say it has not changed that threat, while just 16 percent say it has decreased it so far.
IRAQ WAR MADE TERROR THREAT TO THE U.S.
Increase
Now 43%
6/2004 47%
4/2004 41%
5/2003 34%
Decrease
Now 16%
6/2004 13%
4/2004 18%
5/2003 15%
Stay the same
Now 40%
6/2004 38%
5/2004 39%
5/2003 49%
Fewer than 4 in 10 Americans see the Iraq war as a major component of the broader war on terror; 12 percent see it as just a minor part. 44 percent think it is an altogether separate endeavor. Those who say the war is not part of the war on terror are especially likely to think the action has heightened the threat to Americans at here at home. But even among those who say the Iraq war is a major part of the struggle against terrorism, the majority feels the war has not yet alleviated the danger to the U.S. from terrorism.
Fear of another terrorist attack in the U.S. lingers. Most Americans believe another attack in the U.S. is likely in the next few months--– a sentiment they have harbored since the tragedies of 9/11.
LIKELIHOOD OF TERROR ATTACK IN U.S. IN NEXT FEW MONTHS
Very likely
Now 17%
7/2004 18%
8/2003 15%
5/2003 24%
Somewhat likely
Now 50%
7/2004 48%
8/2003 49%
5/2003 47%
Not very/Not at all likely
Now 28%
7/2004 28%
8/2003 33%
5/2003 27%
Recent Department of Homeland Security warnings about potential threats to financial buildings in New York and Washington D.C. have drawn both praise and criticism. But most Americans would rather err on the side of caution: they feel it is a good idea to issue warnings, even if the information is not specific.
SHOULD GOVERNMENT ISSUE WARNINGS WITHOUT SPECIFIC INFORMATION?
Yes
Now 68%
5/2002 71%
No
Now 27%
5/2002 25%
Still, the warnings inspire a mix of security and anxiety in the public. Those feelings are not much different from those found in the earlier days of the warnings system in 2003.
HAVE WARNINGS MADE YOU FEEL…?
Mostly secure
Now 40%
2/2003 37%
Mostly anxious
Now 37%
2/2003 40%
Women are more likely than men, by 42 percent to 33 percent, to say the terror warnings make them anxious. And those under 30 also say the warnings make them anxious -- the highest of any age group. While feelings about the terror warnings differ little among those in the cities, suburbs and rural areas, residents of the Northeast are more likely than those living in other areas of the country to say the warnings make them more anxious.
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,009 adults, interviewed by telephone August 15-18, 2004. There were 835 registered voters in the sample. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample and for the sample of registered voters.