Bristol-Myers Comes Clean: Its New Cancer Drug Is Not the "Holy Grail"

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) got some good headlines -- and a jump in its stock price -- over positive trial results from its new cancer drug, ipilimumab, but most of those stories didn't mention how modest the drug's benefit was compared to the "holy grail" claims being applied to it a year ago.

Ipilimumab showed improved rates of overall survival for metastatic melanoma (skin cancer) patients compared to a group treated with an immune therapy. That's good news -- the 676-person study shows the drug has some effect. But it's not a response that "far exceeded any of our expectations," as the Mayo Clinic said in June 2009. Back then, the respected institution put out a surreal press release that hailed ipilimumab as if it were a miracle cure: Three men with late stage inoperable prostate cancer saw their tumors shrink so dramatically they could be attacked with surgery. The press release made the stock of Medarex, BMS's development partner on ipilimumab, rise sharply even though three patients is far too small a sample to draw any reasonable conclusions.

In an amazing coincidence, BMS acquired Medarex the next month, and Medarex CEO Howard Pien walked away with $17 million in total compensation after just two years' work.

A skeptic might have asked, Was the value of the drug being hyped as BMS was trying to acquire it?

Last week's ipilimumab results suggest the answer is yes. Although the drug seems to have some benefit, BMS's trial comes with all the usual depressing baggage that drags behind most advances in cancer research:

• The "placebo" in the test was an experimental vaccine that few believe has any anti-cancer effect.
• Ipilimumab only extends media overall survival rates by 3.7 months compared to the placebo.
• Less than half of the patients were still alive after one year on the drug (although that's still much better than the placebo).
• It's unclear why one ipilimumab arm of the test had 403 patients in it, while the other two arms had only 137 and 136 patients in them.
• And there were much higher rates of adverse events, including deaths, among those taking ipilimumab.

Related:

• Medarex Holders Shrug at BMS Buyout: Is the Glass 11% Empty or 190% Full?
• Investor Sees Ipilimumab Conspiracy in Medarex-BMS Deal: 90% Premium Not Good Enough!
• Medarex CEO Shrugged at $250K Stock Deal in Face of $17.1M in Compensation
• Medarex CEO Gets $4.2M Bonus in BMS Deal After Just 2 Years' Work
• UPDATED: Medarex Stock Defies Gravity Despite Nonsensical Ipilimumab Release