Bill O'Brien must defy history to succeed as Penn State coach

A Patriots source has confirmed that offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is indeed taking the head coaching job at Penn State.

But a Patriots history lesson confirms that the recent past doesn't bode well for the guy.

Just ask Charlie Weis, the former New England offensive guru who left Foxboro for the coveted Notre Dame head coaching gig in 2005. After a promising first season, he led the Fighting Irish to frustrating mediocrity and a losing record in bowl games. In 2009, the team was ranked in the top 25 and expectations were high. Weis led the team to a 6-6 regular season and was promptly canned.

Exhibit 1-A: Josh McDaniels, another Bill Belichick apprentice, who was hired by the Denver Broncos as head coach at the age of 33 in 2009. His legacy? Being mocked for drafting Tim Tebow in the first round and being canned after a 3-9 start in 2010.

Even former Patriots coaches known as defensive gurus have not fared well. Romeo Crennel (26-41) and Eric Mangini (33-47) languished as NFL head coaches after being wooed away from New England.

See a trend here? It is understandably tempting to lure an offensive or defensive coordinator away from a franchise that has been the gold standard in the NFL for the past decade. But the Patriots' winning formula is driven by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick - not its rotating door of assistants.

Now it's O'Brien's turn. Given the child sex abuse scandal that has rocked Happy Valley, his challenge is more daunting than the others before him. In addition to the uncertainty shadowing the football program, several top recruits have spurned the Nittany Lions.

Complete coverage: The Penn State scandal

CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd sums up O'Brien's prospects thusly: "O'Brien's future awaits. Ironically, he needs a quarterback at Penn State for starters. Suddenly, for him, there are no Tom Bradys in sight."