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A New Ballgame?

The dialogue in the race for the presidency has revolved almost exclusively around education, taxes, Social Security and Medicare. But in the end, the outcome of the race could be determined by foreign affairs beyond the control of Al Gore and George W. Bush.

In the most recent two weeks of Pax Americana, events overseas in Yugoslavia and the Middle East, capped off by a deadly explosion that killed American sailors in a Middle Eastern port, have pushed foreign affairs to the front burner of the presidential race.

The morning after their second presidential debate, both candidates kept scheduled appearances in key battleground states, but opened their celebratory rallies with moments of silence for the dead and promises of "consequences" (Bush) and "full and forceful retaliatory attack" (Gore) if the explosion is found to be an act of terrorism, as the U.S. government suspects.

The stock market plummeted on the news of possible terrorism and escalating violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

For the presidential campaigns, which have built their messages on surplus spending promises, news of the Dow's fifth-biggest point loss ever has to be a near calamity.

"The race is positioned on the head of a pin, you might say," says Boston University presidential scholar Bob Dallek, "and it's all going to depend on current events."

Dallek and other experts say for now, any domestic political advantage goes to Gore, who is seen as more experienced and knowledgeable.

"The record will show that crises of this kind tend to favor the incumbent party," says Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker. "Whenever there's tension or strife in the world, there's a feeling not to change force midstream. A good example being the election of 1916 when Woodrow Wilson got a second term marginally because of … his promise to keep us out of the war" in Europe.

(Dallek cited several examples of foreign affairs influencing the outcome modern presidential elections. FDR "never" would have been re-elected in 1940 were it not for the war in Europe; Eisenhower benefited in 1952 from frustration with the Korean War; JFK from the missile gap with Soviet Union in 1960; Nixon from his "secret plan" to end the Vietnam war in 1968; and Reagan from the Iran hostage crisis in 1980.)

Baker says expect a bipartisan "show of unity" while the Middle East situation plays out.

"I don't think you're going to see a lot of difference in how [Gore and Bush] react to this," Baker predicted. "I think this is one of those situations where politics stops at the water's edge."

Indeed, in his formal response to the news of the explosion aboard the USS Cole, Bush said, "It's time for our nation to speak with one voice. I appreciate the Administration's efforts to bring calm to that troubled part of the world."

Noting Thursday's stock market slide, Georgetwn University's Stephen Wayne, also an expert on the presidency, said a war, fighting in the Middle East or a spike in oil prices could give Gore an advantage in the election "because he has more experience. The Bush people, knowing that, may very well announce that General Powell will be Secretary of State to counterbalance the advantage of experience" held by Gore.

Wayne also predicted, "If something does happen in the Middle East, we'll see a lot more of Dick Cheney."

Cheney was President Bush's Secretary of Defense and a key player in assembling the coalition of American allies in the Middle East that fought the Persian Gulf War against Saddam Hussein's forces in 1991.

At his campaign stop in a Langhorn, Pennsylvania high school gym before an audience of students, young men wearing uniforms of the armed services and older men from veterans' organizations, a buoyant Bush kept right on politicking after he presiding over the moment of silence.

Having held his own throughout 40 minutes of foreign policy debate with a cowed Al Gore on Wednesday, Bush seemed as confident as he's been in a long time. He said Gore "poses" as a Medicare reformer and called the Veep's criticisms of Bush's plan to change Social Security "so predictable, so tired and so partisan."

"I think I might have surprised some people about my ability to converse in foreign policy. I think a lot about it," Bush told CBS News' Early Show on Thursday. In his statement on the explosion, Bush said, "I've been following events in the Middle East."

"Obviously," Baker said of Bush's debate performance, "he took the Stanley Kaplan course in foreign policy."

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