A look ahead: Prospects for Russia's continued war on Ukraine in 2025
After more than a thousand days of war, there are signs Ukraine is running short of manpower. Russia is capitalizing, seizing territory faster this year than it's done since 2022, and terrorizing Ukrainians with cheaply-produced glide bombs – old Soviet-era ammunition retrofitted with wings and GPS.
This past fall, we spoke with Colonel Maksym Balagura, a special forces commander in Ukraine's State Border Guard, and asked if Russia's use of glide bombs had changed the trajectory of the war.
"At the moment they're the biggest threat," he told us. "They're sapping the motivation of our soldiers to win."
- How Russia, Ukraine deploy new technologies, tactics on the battlefield ("Sunday Morning")
- How Russia is utilizing glide bombs to gain ground in Ukraine war
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Ukrainians fought back in August, with the biggest foreign incursion into Russian territory since World War II.
- Ukrainian troops push deeper into Russia
- The stakes behind Ukraine's surprise attack inside Russian territory ("Sunday Morning")
- Kremlin struggles to respond to Ukraine's shock offensive inside Russia
- U.S. "seeing evidence" of North Korean troops in Russia as Ukraine war rages
But in October we found the mood in Kyiv gloomy and anxious. Ukrainians told us they feared that if Donald Trump won the U.S. election, he'd stop the supply of weapons, and pressure Ukraine's government into surrendering territory.
One woman, Halina, told us her husband was serving in the military, and hoped Americans wouldn't abandon them.
I asked, "Are you worried that Donald Trump could cut off the supply of weapons to Ukraine?"
"Yes," she replied. "For us, it's a matter of survival."
- Ukrainians warily eyeing the U.S. election have a simple message: Thank you, and please don't abandon us.
- How Donald Trump and Kamala Harris differ on the Russia-Ukraine war
- NATO aims to safeguard commitment to Ukraine amid concern about rising right-wing populism
- Trump indicates he "would encourage" Russian aggression against NATO allies who don't meet spending targets
- U.S. aid to Ukraine in doubt after Trump election victory
After the election, President Joe Biden finally gave Ukraine permission to hit Russia with American-supplied ATACMs – missiles with a range of close to 200 miles – perhaps an attempt to help Ukraine maximize its gains before Trump takes office.
- White House announces nearly $1 billion more in military assistance to Ukraine
- Biden lifts restriction on Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided weapons deep inside Russian territory
- Ukraine uses U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for first time in counteroffensive against Russia
- What long-range missiles bring to Ukraine's fight against Russia
- Trump denounces Biden decision to let Ukraine fire American missiles toward Russia
Without a steady flow of U.S. weapons, Ukraine's front line could collapse. It would hand Russian President Vladimir Putin a monumental victory. Throughout this grinding war of attrition, he's been waiting for the West's unity and resolve to fall apart.
- Russia accuses U.S. of adding fuel to the fire, 1,000 days after war began
- What we know about Russia's attack on Ukraine's power grid
- Ukraine says Russia's "tactics of terror" apparent in huge missile attack on energy sector as winter arrives
Story produced by Mark Hudspeth. Editor: Ed Givnish.
