2020 Sunday Trail Markers: Everything to watch for at this week's debate
Here's what you need to know in politics this week...
- What the candidates must do in Detroit
- The big issue: health care
- Will Democrats have a trade war at the debate?
- What New Hampshire voters want
- Exhausted Republicans keep retiring
- This week's schedule
Welcome to a special edition of CBS News' Sunday Trail Markers. We're focused today on the second round of Democratic debates, which take place Tuesday and Wednesday in Detroit. Here's what to look for from each candidate as they attempt to survive the stage.
MICHAEL BENNET
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Cara Korte: Sen. Michael Bennet only spoke for a few minutes in the last debate. Since then, he's been most outspoken about Sen. Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All plan, which Bennet frequently criticizes as too costly and unrealistic.
Sanders and Bennet are appearing on different nights, meaning the Colorado Democrat may be looking for a new foil. And Sen. Kamala Harris, who favors Medicare for All and has been criticized for her sometimes shifting answers on how it might work, will be onstage with Bennet on Wednesday.
Our Q: Will Bennet, who lags well behind Harris in the polls, take aim at the California senator?
JOE BIDEN
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Bo Erickson: What does a less "polite" Biden look like? That's what the former vice president, long dependent on his folksy "Uncle Joe" brand, forecasted this week as his game plan for the upcoming second debate. This warning comes after just about everyone agreed that the one-time public defender should have prepped a better defense for his long legislative record at the last debate.
But despite last month's dust-up with Kamala Harris, Biden has continued to lead all polls since the last debate, although a few show rivals closing in. Biden in the past month released three major proposals—a foreign policy aimed at reversing President Trump's "America first" approach, a healthcare plan that boosts Obamacare over "Medicare for All," and a criminal justice reform plan that counteracts several pieces of legislation he supported decades ago. We also learned the man who often calls himself "Middle-Class Joe" is now quite wealthy thanks to big book and speech deals since leaving office in 2016.
Our Q: Will any of his rivals take the baton from Harris as Biden's biggest critic? Sen. Cory Booker's back-and-forth with Biden over his criminal justice plan this week may be a sneak peek for what's to come. Both Booker and Harris will flank both sides of Biden on stage.
Some more to watch for: Will others candidate question Biden's distaste for "Medicare for all" or point out he is one of the only candidates who does not support federal cannabis legalization? And if Biden under fire does throw politeness off the debate stage, could he potentially over correct? Will voters like the more aggressive Uncle Joe?
BILL DE BLASIO
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Zak Hudak: If Bill de Blasio needed a home run last debate, he needs a grand slam this time. The New York City mayor surprised voters in June, interrupting more prominent candidates and landing several blows on his rivals. But to make the third debate stage and stay alive in this race, de Blasio will need 20 times the individual donors he had at the start of the month. And he'll also need a bump in his anemic polling numbers.
De Blasio and his staffers will tell you that his central pitch to the American people is that he will "put power back in the hands of working people." But that isn't very different from what better-known candidates, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have put at the center of their campaigns. So how can he differentiate himself from the field's other progressives?
He might get some interest if he fires up one potential audience member: President Trump. De Blasio has repeatedly said he is the New Yorker—a word which seems here to be a euphuism for tough guy—who can beat Mr. Trump. Taking a page from the president's playbook, de Blasio has taken to calling Mr. Trump "Con Don," although it hasn't exactly caught on as a nickname. The two have tweeted videos condemning one another, and as recently as last week, de Blasio challenged Mr. Trump to debate him on what's best for New York City.
De Blasio will also be on stage again with Joe Biden, whom the mayor has taken nearly every opportunity to criticize.
Our Q: Will de Blasio debate the Democrats on stage with him or try to poke the president instead?
STEVE BULLOCK
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Tim Perry: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, the only candidate who didn't qualify for the last debate but did for this one, will use Detroit as a way to introduce himself to Democratic voters. As the only Democratic candidate to win a statewide election in a state won by President Trump in 2016, Bullock is hoping that he can capitalize on his appeal to moderates and rural voters.
Our Q: Will the Detroit debate give Bullock the name I.D. he needs to jumpstart his campaign?
CORY BOOKER
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Jack Turman: In the lead up to the second debate, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker has been critical of Joe Biden's criminal justice reform plan and his role in the 1994 crime bill. Referencing the 1994 crime bill, Booker said Biden was an "architect of mass incarceration." Booker and Biden will have the chance to directly address each other on criminal justice as they are sharing the debate stage on the second night.
Our Q: How aggressive will Booker be in drawing contrasts with Biden's criminal justice reform plan?
PETE BUTTIGIEG
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Jack Turman: Since the last debate, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has expanded his staff and released more policy proposals. In Iowa recently, Buttigieg said that he wasn't going to be aggressive in the debate "for its own sake." He added, "Of course I'm going to vigorously defend what I believe in and when there are contrasts to be drawn, we're going to draw them."
Buttigieg is sharing the debate stage with Beto O'Rourke. Both have said that their relative youth is an asset, and that the Democratic Party embrace new leaders to succeed.
Our Q: How will Buttigieg and O'Rourke distinguish themselves in making the generational change argument?
JULIAN CASTRO
Via CBS News Campaign Reporters Musadiq Bidar and Adam Brewster: Former HUD Julian Castro is expecting a question on Section 1325 of the immigration law, which criminalizes border crossings, to come up again at the debate. "It is clear that you have some on that stage who agree with me, which is the majority, and some people who do not," Castro told CBS News during an interview in Des Moines on Saturday morning. "I wouldn't be surprised at all if those questions about immigration, about other questions where people have expressed different views come up very directly," Castro added.
Castro, who challenged fellow Texan Beto O'Rourke during the last debate on Section 1325, said it is "fair to people to point out legitimate policy differences," adding that is why he was "happy" with that exchange. "The disagreement that I had with Congressman O'Rourke was a policy difference. It wasn't a personal back-and-forth about anything. So I think policy differences are absolutely fair game for people to point out and contrast."
Castro said he is still working on getting his name ID up and doesn't worry about having "a huge spike in support in the summer of 2019." He told CBS News he wants his campaign to get stronger so that he is "at the right place, at the right time," as the election cycle speeds up closer to the Iowa Caucuses.
Our Q: Can Castro repeat his success from the last debate to secure a spot in the top tier of candidates? Will the other candidates join Castro in calling for the repeal of Section 1325?
JOHN DELANEY
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Adam Brewster: Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney will be on the debate stage Tuesday night with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The senators are two of the leading proponents for Medicare for All as a fully government run program that would eliminate private insurance, an idea Delaney has frequently criticized on the trail.
"I think they need to defend how they're actually going to beat Donald Trump if they're actually going to tell half the country that they're going to lose their private health insurance," Delaney said in Iowa on Wednesday. He also signaled he may question their plans to eliminate student debt by asking "what are you going to say to someone who just paid off their student loans?"
Delaney went on to add that some candidates are "running on basically massive upheaval of the entire U.S. economy" that he says is "driven by deep distrust for the private economy."
Looking ahead, Delaney has yet to qualify for the September debate stage. When asked about how candidates move forward if they aren't on that stage, Delaney said "they may not have to be on the third (stage), but they have to be on the fourth (stage)." He said not qualifying creates "more headwinds" for candidates.
Our Q: Will Delaney have a moment at this debate that can be a springboard toward getting on one of those fall stages?
TULSI GABBARD
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Jack Turman: Last week, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard's campaign sent an email last week saying that Google suspended her campaign's advertising account. Gabbard said she supports breaking up big tech monopolies and the email indicates that big tech's "dominance represents a clear and present danger to our democracy."
Our Q: Will Gabbard, who spent much of the last debate talking about her opposition to war, shift her focus to breaking up big tech companies? And will other candidates support her position?
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Cara Korte: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand interrupted the other candidates during last month's debate. She's not afraid to speak up, which she reminded us this week when she unabashedly stood by her condemnation for Al Franken. Keep an eye on her Wednesday, as she shares many of the same views as Warren and Sanders but won't have them on stage with her.
Our Q: After enduring several months of anemic polling and fundraising, will Gillibrand take a page from Kamala Harris and try to land a punch on Joe Biden?
KAMALA HARRIS
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Stephanie Ramirez: After a triumphant performance at last month's debate in Miami, Harris remerged as a top contender for the Democratic nomination. And she's on stage once again with Joe Biden, who is promising to be less "polite" this time around.
One possible vulnerability for Harris, who was San Francisco's district attorney and California's attorney general, is her record as a prosecutor. Critics have questioned the California senator's own claims of being a "progressive prosecutor," and her support for a 2010/2011 California law that criminalized student truancy.
Opponents of the law argue that it targeted and jailed parents from disenfranchised communities. But after the first debate, Harris defended her record, telling South Carolina voters that she was "never going to apologize" for prosecuting child molesters, rapists and murderers. She also said she's proud of the work she did "in saying we needed to be focused on elementary school truancy."
On health care, Harris has had to clarify where she stands on Medicare for All on multiple occasions. The California senator is a co-sponsor of Bernie Sanders' "Medicare for All" bill, which would eliminate almost all forms of private insurance. But in a recent CNN interview, the California senator distanced herself from Sanders' plan and offered what she called "her version" of a "Medicare for All" plan that would not include a middle class tax hike. With a major tax hike on the middle class off the table, Harris is now facing questions on how she would pay for it.
Our Q: Can Sen. Kamala Harris have a stand out debate performance again?
JOHN HICKENLOOPER
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Stephanie Ramirez: The former Colorado governor will get to face the candidate he's been criticizing the most in recent months: Bernie Sanders.
Hickenlooper is a frequent critic of Medicare for All and the Vermont senator's brand of "democratic socialism," and warns that if Democrats move too far left that Donald Trump will get reelected. Hickenlooper pitches himself as a more "middle-of-the-road" candidate, but has struggled to separate himself from some of the other more moderate candidates, particularly Joe Biden.
Hickenlooper is celebrating a recent Fox News poll that shows him at 2% support. It's a big win for him, but a small increase in this crowded 2020 field. Hickenlooper has struggled to break-out of the crowd, endured a campaign shake-up and repeated calls to run for the U.S. Senate instead.
Our Q: Will Hickenlooper have a break-out moment from this second debate that could help boost support?
JAY INSLEE
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Tim Perry: Going into the Detroit debate, Gov. Jay Inslee has continued to release policy proposals aimed at tacking climate change and addressing labor union rights. The Washington governor has been prepping in Seattle and using friends to play the roles of different candidates during their mock debate sessions. In Detroit, expect to see the governor be a lot more assertive in bringing up climate change, an issue central to his candidacy that wasn't addressed until the second hour of the Miami debate.
Our Q: How high does climate change rank as an important issue for Democratic primary voters? If Inslee is correct in his hope that it's very high, can he capitalize on it?
AMY KLOBUCHAR
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Bo Erickson: Look for Sen. Amy Klobuchar to contrast herself with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who will be a few podiums away from her on Tuesday. Klobuchar's message is that she's been an effective senator who will know how to get things done in the White House. "Me? Well, I have big bold plans, yes. But I've also given myself and our Congress and our nation deadlines," as she said in a July speech centered on what her first 100 days in office would look like.
Klobuchar has recently laid out how she would pay for her housing plan that addresses rural home shortages, and her new senior citizen plan, which aspires to end Alzheimer's. But will ask for similar details from her rivals? If candidates are light on specifics, will Klobuchar say they're "all foam, no beer!" as she does for some of Mr. Trump's promises?
The senator has met the polling threshold for the September debates but not yet the required 135,000 unique donors.
Our Q: Will Klobuchar's emphasis on not "over promising" start to appeal to Democrats as the primaries move closer -- or will they look elsewhere?
BETO O'ROURKE
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Tim Perry: Beto O'Rourke's campaign is hoping to bounce back from what was widely perceived as a lackluster debate performance in Miami. Since the last debate, O'Rourke has seen a slip in polls and fundraising. A campaign official tells CBS News that O'Rourke is hoping to "connect with voters like he does on the ground," and says that during the last round of debates he did not come across as himself.
Aides say O'Rourke's goal heading into Detroit is to convey a clear sense of who he is to voters.
Our Q: Can O'Rourke reclaim the momentum and excitement that he had when he entered the race?
TIM RYAN
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Bo Erickson: After prep sessions this week that included watching "game tape" of the last debate, Rep. Tim Ryan plans to drive the 3.5 hours from his Ohio district to the Motor City to address one of his key issues: manufacturing jobs.
While Ryan's polling support is just above zero, as this week's CBS News latest Battleground Tracker indicated, he has been for months engaged in debate with his fellow Democrats, the Trump Administration and General Motors over the company's decision to shutter a factory in his district and eliminate roughly 1800 jobs.
Ryan says it's an example of how he says the middle class has been "getting screwed" for the last 40 years, and if there's any place for a pitch like that, it's probably Detroit.
Our Q: With more than two dozen options to choose from, will Democratic voters find Ryan compelling enough this week to get behind?
BERNIE SANDERS
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Cara Korte: Sen. Bernie Sanders did not have "a moment" in the first debate last month. That might be a good thing, seeing as the night's biggest moment was the contentious debate between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Sanders stayed out of the cross hairs, but it demonstrates how different this election is for him, as he no longer is sharing the spotlight with just one other opponent.
This week's debate will be even more challenging as he stands right beside his fellow progressive Elizabeth Warren, forcing Sanders to try to own his ideological turf.
Our Q: At some point, the two need to clearly differentiate themselves for waffling voters. Will Tuesday be the night or could both candidates hesitate to look like the aggressor?
ELIZABETH WARREN
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Zak Hudak: The Massachusetts senator has been living by the "slow and steady wins the race" mantra, never seeing a major surge, but finally now polling ahead of everyone except Joe Biden. In the last debate round, the former law school professor must have felt as if she were back in a classroom. She presented her ideas and then watched a group of lesser-known candidates debate their own while dodging every opportunity to criticize hers.
Warren often refers to her candidacy and goals as a "fight" at campaign stops. But periodic volleys with Mr. Trump aside, Warren has shown a striking ability to stay out of the fray. Bernie Sanders, with whom she will share the stage Tuesday, has absorbed many of the attacks on policies that Warren also champions. When Michael Bennett takes shots at plans for college debt forgiveness and eliminating private health insurance, he calls them "Bernie's plan." That could be because Sanders introduced specific bills for those things, but Warren has called for equally progressive measures. Either way, it illustrates the extent to which Sanders has become the face of the progressive wing of the Democratic party.
Now, Warren and Sanders will share a stage, with her leading him in several polls. If the past is any indication, the two are likely to avoid criticizing one another.
Our Q: Will Warren have to defend her progressive agenda in the same way Sanders has?
MARIANNE WILLIAMSON
Via CBS News Associate Producer Sarah Ewall-Wice: "I just want to be myself," said author and activist Marianne Williamson in an interview with MSNBC over the weekend when asked about her strategy heading into the debate. Williamson will be positioned on the far left side of the stage during the debate, which is also where she was positioned during the first debates in June. However, not being center stage didn't hurt her during the first go-round.
According to Google, she was the most searched candidate as the debate closed. So what can we expect to hear from her? On Sunday, Williamson's campaign announced if elected president, she plans to create a Department of Children and Youth which would "work interdepartmentally with all of the different government entities that affect children's lives." When asked how the department would be different than the Education Department in a Face the Nation interview, Williamson said there needs to be more than just education funding; there needs to be wraparound services.
Our Q: Can Williamson convince the audience that she can put her ideas into action without the political experience that other candidates have in this crowded field?
ANDREW YANG
Via CBS News Associate Producer Ben Mitchell: Andrew Yang's current strategy appears to be drumming up a "feud" with Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado. As the second debate nears, a "feud" with another candidate could help draw attention to him when he's on the stage.
While Yang has assembled a dedicated group of supporters and online donors, that core unit is relatively small.
For Yang, the debate is his best chance to break out. His "feud" strategy is not unlike his strategy for the first debate: share the stage with Vice President Biden in the hopes that, in his words, "the country can Google who's the Asian man next to Joe Biden?" and raise awareness for his campaign.
But despite sharing a stage with Biden in the first round, Yang failed to have a breakout moment, though to be fair he spoke the least of any candidate. This time, he's on stage for what some are billing the marquee matchup - Sen. Harris and Vice President Biden.
Our Q: Since Yang will certainly have the sizable audience he's looking for, will his new "feud" get him a little more screen time to raise his profile?
THE BIG ISSUE: HEALTH CARE
Via CBS News Associate Producer Sarah Ewall-Wice: CBS News polling in July found health care to be the most pressing issue among Democrats in early voting states, and it could be one of the more contentions topics discussed at the second democratic presidential debate. The party appears to be splitting into two factions over how to address fixing the health care system between those in favor a government-run single-payer Medicare for All system and those who favor expanding on the Affordable Care Act and introducing a public option.
The latter stance is supported by more moderate candidates, including Joe Biden, who proudly touts the passage of the ACA while he was vice president and has introduced his own plan to expand on it since the first debate. Biden and progressive stalwart Bernie Sanders have criticized each other over health care, but they will not be sharing a debate stage.
Some candidates who have been vocal to keep an eye on for potential criticism of Medicare for All during the debate night with Sanders are John Hickenlooper, John Delaney and Steve Bullock. Other candidate who could try and have a health care moment on the second debate night are Bill de Blasio, who said he supports creating an entirely new system, versus Michael Bennet, who recently said he was concerned that Democrats were following Sanders off a cliff.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris still facing questions about her own support for Medicare for All and could be forced to clarify her stance again on Wednesday's debate stage.
For more on what the candidates have been saying about health care on the campaign trail, click here.
WILL DEMOCRATS HAVE A TRADE WAR AT THE DEBATE?
Via CBS News Associate Producer Eleanor Watson: Joe Biden's vote to support the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 could be a topic on debate night. Candidates like New York City Bill De Blasio, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg have criticized the free trade deal. De Blasio appeared on Andrea Mitchell's show on Tuesday and said that he expects the debate will focus on Biden because "this is a guy who voted for NAFTA, led to loss of jobs, supported [Trans-Pacific Partnership] favoring corporations."
The impending vote on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will give candidates a peg to discuss their views on trade and tariffs. Many of the candidates have expressed skepticism towards free trade deals even though most Democratic voters support them. In a 2018 Pew Center Poll, 67% of Democrats said free trade agreements have been a good thing. The Trump administration's National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters at the White House on Friday that the USMCA will likely come to a vote in September.
WHAT NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS WANT
Via CBS News Campaign Reporter Nicole Sganga: New England voters tell CBS News they want to see a fight – against Mr. Trump, not within the Democratic Party. "They're gonna have to show me they're ready for a fight with Trump," retired administrator Susan Lake from Londonderry told CBS News. "You have to beat him down."
Another request? Policy specifics. "You have to explain what you want to do in this country," retired teacher Pat Lechance added. "You have to say, 'I want to do this and here's how I'm going to pay for it.'"
According to the latest CBS News Battleground tracker poll, 88% of surveyed Democrats in New Hampshire rate health care to be "very important," with 81% also ranking climate change as "very important" to them personally. Voters on the ground reiterated those issues in over two dozen interviews with CBS News. Granite Staters also expressed disappointment in the lack of climate change policy detail following the first Democratic Debate.
Strong debate performances will be critical to lesser known candidates hoping to attract early primary state voters just tuning in. Kathleen Murdough from Conway told CBS News following the first debate, "The biggest thing for a lot of candidates who aren't polling well is just that people haven't heard of them. You know, they know Bernie Sanders. They know Joe Biden, here in New Hampshire. And we know Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts." The high school teacher adds that candidates may still have a chance of impressing first-in-the-nation voters. "We're still so far out from the primaries."
EXHAUSTED REPUBLICAN HOUSE MEMBERS KEEP RETIRING
Via CBS News Broadcast Associate Aaron Navarro: In the past seven days, three Republican Representatives have announced they would not seek re-election in 2020.
Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama was the latest to do so, joining Reps. Paul Mitchell and Pete Olsen. All three Republicans have split with Mr. Trump in the past, and Roby pulled her endorsement of Trump in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tapes were released. Meanwhile, Mitchell and Olsen publicly disavowed Trump's racist comments towards four progressive congresswomen.
While Olsen's district was already on a 2020 target list for Democrats, Mitchell and Roby both won reelection in 2018 by more than 20 points, although Roby did have a competitive primary. Roby is the second of the 13 GOP House women to forgo re-election in 2020, Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana announced her retirement last month.
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) told CBS News earlier this month that getting more women elected to the House is a priority, the current count of 13 marks a 25 year low. In Roby's statement on Friday, she wrote, "We aren't finished yet. My name will not be on the ballot in 2020, but I remain committed to continuing the fight until I cast my last vote on the House floor." CBS News' latest count has five House Republicans and one Democrat who have announced they will retire in 2020.
ON THE TRAIL THIS WEEK
7/29 – Delaney in MI; Inslee in MI; Warren in OH
7/30 – Bullock in MI; Buttigieg in MI; Delaney in MI; Hickenlooper in MI; Inslee in MI; Klobuchar in MI; O'Rourke in MI; Ryan in MI; Sanders in MI; Warren in MI; Williamson in MI
7/31 – Bennet in MI; Biden in MI; Booker in MI; Castro in MI; Delaney in MI; de Blasio in MI, Gabbard in MI; Gillibrand in MI; Harris in MI; Inslee in MI; Yang in MI
8/1 – O'Rourke in NV; Booker in MI; Trump in OH; Warren in AZ
8/2 – Harris in CO
8/3 – O'Rourke in NV; Biden in NV; Booker in NV; Bullock in NV; Buttigieg in NV; Castro in NV; de Blasio in NV; Delaney in NV; Gabbard in NV; Harris in NV; Inslee in NV; Klobuchar in NV; Moulton in NV; O'Rourke in NV; Ryan in NV; Sanders in NV; Steyer in NV; Warren in NV; Williamson in NV
8/4 – Biden in CA; Delaney in IA; Harris in CA
