20 House Races to Watch in 2010

The 2010 House races provide a multitude of interesting races to watch, with so many are seriously in play this year. Below is a list of some of the kinds of seats that could ultimately decide control of the House.

Taken together, they tell a range of stories, from battles in suburbia to the open plains. This is the story of whether the parties can win in areas where they've struggled (Republicans in the northeast, Democrats in the south) and which candidates may be harmed or bolstered by the economy, stances on immigration and/or the tough votes taken over the past two years on health care, cap and trade and stimulus spending.

Check out the CBS News Interactive Campaign Map with All 2010 House and Senate Race Ratings

Suburban battles:

Suburbs are traditionally the much-discussed "swing" areas, and these battlegrounds could, again, hold the key to House control. House Democrats did well in the 'burbs in 2006 and 2008 - and many of the lawmakers representing these areas are freshmen Democrats who rode that success to wins. But they are seats that profile more Republican/conservative. Barack Obama's popularity, not to mention turnout operation, helped them get elected. However, the president's slipping approval - or the risk of lower turnout from new and younger voters - could factor into whether they keep their jobs in 2010.

Florida District 8: Rep. Alan Grayson (D); Area: Orlando suburbs

• 2008 Dem House vote: 52%
• 2008 Obama vote: 52%

This is a race full of colorful characters battling to represent the Disneyworld area, parts of Orlando and the Orlando suburbs. It looks like an interesting race leading up to the GOP primary and then into the fall. Some say Democrats winning in this conservative-leaning - though demographically changing - district was one of the bigger surprises of 2008, as Rep. Alan Grayson (D) beat incumbent Ric Keller.

Grayson has not been a typical freshman lawmaker either. He's often considered more to the left of his district, and some of his views have led some critics to label him the congressman from moveon.org. Perhaps Grayson's most famous national moment came he went to the House floor to push for health care reform's passage and said the Republican's health care plan was for Americans to "die quickly." He's also a vocal opponent of the war in Afghanistan.

Three Republicans want to take Grayson on -- businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, state Rep. Kurt Kelly and former state senate majority leader Daniel Webster. The Republican primary in Florida is August 24th.

Florida District 24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D); Area: Orlando suburbs and "Space Coast" south of Daytona

• 2008 Dem House vote: 57%
• 2008 Obama vote: 49%

Florida's 24th is another suburban district that includes part of Orlando and its suburbs and heads east toward Daytona and the "space coast." Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) was elected in the Democratic wave of 2008 and beat Republican incumbent Tom Feeney who was connected to the Jack Abramoff scandals.

Today, the district profiles as a toss-up race -- the Republicans opponent won't be known until the August 24th primary. There's a crowded field of Republican candidates including businessman Craig Miller, former CEO of Ruth's Chris steakhouses.

Illinois District 10: Open; Area: Chicago suburbs

• 2008 Dem vote: 53%
• 2008 Obama Vote: 61%

This is a seat Democrats are hoping to pick up this November, though it may not be easy. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk is giving it up to make a run for the Senate, leaving these Northern Chicago suburbs - and their moderate and independent voters - to a battle between Democrat Dan Seals and Republican Robert Dold.

Kirk had staked out centrist positions and been re-elected to serve five terms in this district that voted Democratic for president. It gave a healthy 61 percent to Chicagoan Obama, and a more marginal 53 percent to John Kerry, helped by some of the kind of more affluent voters who've been trending Democrat. These statistics help profile this district as a place for a potential changeover.

Seals, a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern University, is hoping that his third time running for this seat will be the charm. Dold owns a local pest management company and used to work for the Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Capitol Hill. The two candidates have about the same amount of cash on hand in this battle and have serious backing from the House campaign committees.

Nevada District 3: Rep. Dina Titus (D); Area: Las Vegas suburbs

• 2008 Dem House vote: 47%
• 2008 Obama vote: 55%

Harry Reid isn't the only Nevada Democrat feeling the heat in the desert. Rep. Dina Titus (D) rode the 2008 Democratic wave beating Republican Rep. Jon Porter here in what were the fast-growing (and now economically hard-hit) Las Vegas suburbs.

Titus' Republican opponent, Joe Heck, is an emergency room technician and small business owner. He served with Titus in the Nevada State Assembly. Titus was a yes on health care and Heck is attacking her as close to Nancy Pelosi and part of the spending problem in Washington.

Ohio District 1: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D); Area: Cincinnati and suburbs

• 2008 Dem House vote: 52%
• 2008 Obama vote: 55%

This razor-tight district is a rematch, pitting incumbent Democrat moderate Steve Driehaus against Steve Chabot, in what figures to be another close contest. Driehaus was aided by boosted Democratic turnout in 2008 for President Obama, especially among newer voters and black voters, closer to the city portion of the district.

If that turnout doesn't materialize, this could be a different story in 2010. This is one race where Democrats think Mr. Obama's help campaigning could help bring out the vote for Driehaus.

Western districts, and rural areas:

In the west, and in rural areas, issues like immigration and energy could be of particular importance. Democrats picked up some of these districts recently, but conservative voters will aim to overturn those recent gains.

New Mexico District 2: Rep. Harry Teague (D); Area: Las Cruces and southern New Mexico

• 2008 Dem vote: 56%
• 2008 Obama vote: 49%

A tough race along the border -- Rep. Harry Teague is a freshman Democrat who won the district when Rep. Steve Pearce left to run for a failed Senate campaign. Now Pearce wants his old job back.

Oil is a major industry in the second district. Republicans are attacking Teague for voting for the stimulus package and the House energy/cap and trade bill.

Interactive Map: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

Arizona District 1: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D); Area: Flagstaff and eastern Arizona

• 2008 Dem vote: 56%
• 2008 Obama vote: 44%

Will the immigration issue be front and center? Here's a district to watch.

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D) district includes the Grand Canyon and the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. Until 2008, the seat was held by Republican Rick Renzi, who was indicted for covering up an illegal land deal.

There are nine Republicans looking to take on Kirkpatrick. Arizona's Primary is August 24.

Colorado District 4: Rep. Betsy Markey (D); Area: North and east Colorado

• 2008 Dem vote: 56%
• 2008 Obama vote: 49%

Can a Democrat survive showdown on the conservative Colorado high plains?

The state of Colorado has been growing and trending blue overall - but this sprawling district of the state's north and east could pose a real test. It's a mix of suburban and mostly rural areas that many were surprised to see the Democrats capture in '08.

First-term Democratic Congresswoman Betsy Markey will face Republican state representative Cory Gardner. Gardner is running a race focused on fiscal responsibility and his website says that government should stay out of health care. Markey voted in favor of health care reform.

Maryland District 1: Rep. Frank Kratovil (D); Area: Eastern Shore

• 2008 Dem vote: 49%
• 2008 Obama vote: 40%

This looks to be an extremely tight race in rural Maryland. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) won in 2008 in this McCain-voting district. He is running against state senator Andy Harris who Kratovil beat by 1 percent last time around.

While Kratovil did not vote for health care reform, he did vote for the stimulus package. Harris is attacking Kratovil for being part of the out of control spending problem in Washington.

Battlegrounds within the battlegrounds:

Ohio and Pennsylvania have traditionally been battleground states. In 2008, President Obama and many Democratic House candidates did well in both, helped by voter anger about the economic downturn, and holding their own with the white working class voters who are especially important here.

Ohio District 16: Rep. John Boccieri (D); Area: Canton, northeast Ohio

• 2008 Dem vote: 55%
• 2008 Obama vote: 48%

An Ohio bellwether? Rep. John Boccieri (D) is running against Republican Jim Renacci. Here's a district where white working-class voters will matter heavily, and the manufacturing sector of the economy - including the auto industry -- will be in sharp focus.

Boccieri won his seat in 2008 after long-time Republican incumbent Ralph Regula retired. Boccieri voted for both cap and trade legislation and for the health care reform bill. Renacci is the former mayor of Wadsworth, Ohop. His background is in business as the owner of nursing homes across Ohio. Renacci is an NRCC favorite with solid national backing.

Pennsylvania District 3: Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D); Area: Erie, northwestern Pennsylvania

• 2008 Dem vote: 51%
• 2008 Obama vote: 49%

As was the case in Pennsylvania in 2008, white working-class and conservative-leaning voters could play a key role here and test the Democrats' 2008 gains.

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D), the first term incumbent congresswoman is running against Republican Mike Kelly. Kelly is a one-time football player for Notre Dame and owns Chevrolet car dealerships in Pennsylvania.

Kelly has never run for office and just made it through a grueling Republican primary. Dahlkemper voted yes on health care reform after she and her anti-abortion Democratic colleagues brokered a deal with President Obama on abortion language. She has done well in fundraising to gird for what may be a tough battle.

Interactive Map: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

The Northeast:

Republicans have seemingly become an endangered or extinct species in the northeast and New England of late. Their success recapturing the House may depend on at least making some inroads back into the region.

New York District 24: Rep. Michael Arcuri (D); Area: Utica, Finger Lakes

• 2008 Dem vote: 52%
• 2008 Obama vote: 50%

This race is one to watch for how some of the tough votes members have taken since the financial crisis could make or break an incumbent. Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) is serving his second term after he came to office as part of the Democratic takeover in 2006, after the longtime Republican incumbent retired.

Arcuri voted against the final passage of the health care reform bill after initially voting for it. He voted for the stimulus package and the TARP. And Republicans will look to make him pay for each of those votes this year.

Arcuri's most likely opponent is socially moderate Republican Richard Hanna, who's running as a fiscal conservative. Hanna owns a successful construction company and, though he has no political experience, touts his success in the private sector.

New York District 29: Open; Area: Elmira and southern New York state

• 2008 Dem vote: 51%
• 2008 Obama vote: 48%

This seat was held by Democrat Eric Massa who resigned in March. The leading Republican candidate is Corning, N.Y., mayor Tom Reed. The Democratic candidate will likely be 29-year-old Matt Zeller, who served in Afghanistan in 2008 as a member of the New York National Guard.

New Hampshire 1: Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D); Area: Manchester and Portsmouth

• 2008 Obama vote: 53%
• 2008 Dem vote: 52%

Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D) came to Congress when Democrats took control of the House in 2006, upsetting Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley by three points, helped in part (as were many that year) by opposition to the Iraq war. She was re-elected in 2008 with 52 percent.

This year, with the economy more in focus, she'll have a tough race to defend it again. It's a closely contested district along the eastern side of the state that includes includes Manchester and Portsmouth, encompassing plenty of the upper-income suburban voters that have leaned Democratic of late, but plenty of the anti-tax voters who tend to back the GOP.

Today there are numerous Republicans competing to put this seat back in the GOP column. Most competitive candidates include former Manchester, N.H., mayor and state lawmaker Frank Guinta and former RNC Chairman Sean Mahoney who now publishes a magazine that focuses on small business issues. The Republican candidates are looking to make this race about fiscal responsibility and reducing the deficit.

Shea Porter was a yes vote on health care reform, but voted against the unpopular TARP. After the September 14th primary, the Republican nominee will likely try to make her support for the stimulus package an issue, especially if the district's voters don't feel it had any impact on them.

The South:

Twenty years ago, Democrats had an edge in the southern and border districts, but over the 1990's (notably in 1994 and '96) retirements and a string of GOP victories saw the Republicans reverse that and build up the advantage they hold today. Some conservative and blue-dog Democrats have succeeded lately in the south, but this year a few open seats and some incumbents in tough fights will be prime targets for the GOP. Can conservative and moderate Democrats still win in the south?

North Carolina District 8: Rep. Larry Kissell (D); Area: Piedmont, Fayetteville region, south-central N.C.

• 2008 Dem vote: 55%
• 2008 Obama vote: 52%

Kissell ousted a Republican incumbent with the help of Barack Obama's registration and turnout efforts in this southern state in 2008. His district includes parts of Charlotte and Fayetteville, and a lot of the kinds of suburban and some rural areas that will be back in play.

It's looking like a toss-up. Republicans found a strong candidate to oppose Kissell in Harold Johnson. Johnson does not have any political experience, in a year where that can be a plus, and he's an Emmy-winning local sportscaster. This race is an excellent litmus test of whether Mr. Obama's strong Democratic push in turnout and registration in the south will hold up again in 2010.

Texas District 17: Chet Edwards (D); Area: Waco, College Station

• 2008 Dem vote: 53%
• 2008 Obama vote: 32%

Here's a test for long-time Democratic incumbents in the south. Long-serving Rep. Chet Edwards is running for his eleventh term in Congress in what could become yet another fight of his political life. He holds a district where John McCain won twice as many votes for president in 2008 as Barack Obama.

Edwards is the lone Democratic survivor of the Texas redistricting of 2004. He will face Republican Bill Flores this November. Flores, a former CEO of an oil and gas company, is pumping his own money into the campaign leading Edwards to charge that Flores is trying to buy the election.

Tennessee District 8: Open; Area: Jackson, Western areas of Tennessee, Northern areas of Memphis

1. 2008 Dem vote: 100% (unopposed)
2. 2008 Obama vote: 43%

"Blue Dog" Democrat John Tanner is retiring after twenty-one years in Congress. The district is rural and includes the suburbs of both Memphis and Nashville. Eight Republicans and two Democrats are vying for their party's nomination August 5th.

The Republican frontrunner in this race is Tea Party candidate Stephan Fincher, a farmer and gospel singer. The likely Democratic nominee, Roy Herron, is a former state senator, author, minister and is now a farmer. This race could test the power of the Tea Party here, and stand as another test of whether conservative Democrats can still win in the south in 2010.

Tennessee District 6: Open; Area: Central Tennessee

• 2008 Dem vote: 74%
• 2008 Obama vote: 37%

Here's another district where a long-time incumbent is retiring. "Blue Dog" Democrat Bart Gordon will leave Congress after twenty-five years. The sixth district includes suburbs of Nashville, is partly rural and its partisan patterns suggest it could be ripe for a GOP takeover.

State lawmaker Diane Black is the likely frontrunner for the GOP nomination. She's a former nurse and is running hard to repeal the health care reform bill. The likely Democrat in this race is National Guardsman Brett Carter. Carter served in Iraq and is an attorney.

In a twist, there is also a self-proclaimed Tea Party Democrat in this race. George Erdel says he was a registered Republican for most of his life, but left the GOP when, he believes, they abandoned Ronald Reagan's conservative principles.

Interactive Map: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

Virginia District 2: Rep. Glenn Nye (D); Area: Virginia Beach, Norfolk

• 2008 Dem vote: 52%
• 2008 Obama vote: 51%

This race could be as much about the economy as any incumbent votes. Rep. Glenn Nye (D) ousted Republican incumbent Thelma Drake in 2008. He voted against both health care reform and the energy/cap and trade bill.

Nye will face Scott Rigell, a car dealership owner. He says he's running because his background in small business will help him get the economy moving again. He's also touting his time served in the Marine Reserves. This military dominated district includes Norfolk and Virginia Beach.

Virginia District 5: Rep. Tom Perriello (D); Area: West Richmond, Charlottesville

• 2008 Dem vote: 50%
• 2008 Obama vote: 48%

In 2008, the Republican incumbent, Virgil Goode, lost his House seat to Rep. Perriello (D) in 2008 by less than 1000 votes. Perriello is now in three-way race facing Republican state lawmaker Robert Hurt and independent Tea Party candidate Jeff Clark.

Perriello may draw the ire of conservatives voting for both health care reform and the energy/cap and trade bill. But watch how the conservative battle between Hurt and Clark plays out as well. They could split votes in Perriello's favor. The district includes more Democratic-voting areas around Charlottesville, but also includes more conservative-leaning rural areas.

CBSNews.com Special Report: Election 2010

Jill Jackson

Jill Jackson is a CBS News senior political producer.

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