Wild Blog: Tale Of The Tape - Minnesota Wild Vs. St. Louis Blues
by Craig D. Schroepfer (@CDSWCCO)
The Minnesota Wild ended the 2014-15 season Saturday with a 4-2 loss to the St. Louis Blues.
Minnesota will have anywhere from four to seven chances to avenge that defeat over the next couple weeks as the Wild and the Blues face-off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
This is the first playoff meeting between both these teams and it will be a contrast of styles. St. Louis is a big physical team that likes to use its size to dictate the pace of play while Minnesota is a smaller team that relies on speed and its ability to skate.
So which team has the edge? Let's go to the tale of the tape.
FORWARDS:
The top two lines for Minnesota are anchored by centers Mikko Koivu (14G, 34A) and Mikael Granlund (8G, 31A) but it will be the other forwards that they are paired that will determine how successful the Wild are.
Zach Parise continues to be a bargain at $13 million a year for Minnesota as he led the Wild this season in goals (33) and points (62).
While Parise was the only Minnesota player to reach the 30 goal mark three other players did pass the 20 goal mark on the season. Nino Neiderreiter finished second on the team with 24. Thomas Vanek overcame a slow start to the season to finish with 21 goals on the years which is tied for third on the Wild with Jason Zucker.
Jason Pominville, who led Minnesota in goals last year with 30, only found the back of the net 18 times this season but he did finish tied for the team lead (with Ryan Suter) in assists with 36.
Former Blues forward Chris Stewart was acquired from Buffalo at the trade deadline and added some much needed size to the Minnesota lineup as he finished with 11 points (3G, 8A) in 20 games.
Stewart's size along with 6'2" Charlie Coyle (11G, 24A) will be needed to try and neutralize a Blues lineup that can roll out four lines and likes to play physical.
The top line for St. Louis, consisting of Jaden Schwartz (28G, 35A), Paul Stastny (16G, 30A), and T.J. Oshie (19G, 36A), came together as a result of injuries to Vladimir Tarasenko and Alexander Steen late in the year.
Oshie is the biggest threat to score on this line and he has a nose for the net going back to his days at Warroad High School. Schwartz is a pest that can easily get underneath the skin of his opposition, causing the team to take a dumb penalty. Stastny came to St. Louis in the off-season and gave the Blues a true number one center that they were lacking.
As a result of this line coming together, Tarasenko and Steen have been paired on the second line with rookie Jori Lehtera.
Tarasenko lead the Blues in scoring this season with 73 points (37G, 36A) while Steen was second on the team with 64 points (24G, 40A). Both being paired with Lehtera (14G, 30A) gives St. Louis their most dangerous scoring line.
The third line for St. Louis consists of Dmitri Jaskin, David Backes, and Patrik Berglund. All three players are solid two way forwards who can score, back check and take away space in the neutral zone. That's just what you want from a third line.
The Blues fourth line is made up of Steve Ott, Marcel Goc, and Ryan Reaves. This is the line Minnesota fans will love to hate as Ott and Reaves are big, nasty and physical. Goc is the center on this line for now but don't be surprised if Olli Jokinen is paired on this line at some point.
DEFENSEMAN:
When you talk about the Minnesota Wild blue line the first name that is always mentioned is Ryan Suter and this year was no different as Suter finished tied for first on the team with 38 assists and was a +7 on ice.
The rest of the defense corps for Minnesota continued to evolve as well.
Marco Scandella led all defenseman on the Wild in goals with 11. Throughout his play this year Scandella has developed nicely into a top 4 defenseman for Minnesota.
Jared Spurgeon continues to give the Wild an offensive presence from the blue line, finishing second among defenseman with 25 points (9G, 16A)
The two most pleasant surprises however on the blue line come from a pair of players expected to become anchors on defense for years to come.
Jonas Brodin bounced back from a tough sophomore year to lead all defenseman in plus/minus at +21. Brodin finished the season with 17 points (3G 14A)
Matt Dumba started the season with Minnesota before being sent down to the AHL just after Thanksgiving. Dumba was recalled after the All-Star break and became a mainstay in the Wild's lineup anchoring the third defensive pairing with Jordan Leopold.
Dumba finished the season second among defenseman in plus/minus at +13 and 16 points (8G, 8A) Dumba has a blistering shot from the blue line which could become an assist in this series.
St. Louis is led on blue line by Alex Pietrangelo who led all defenseman on the Blues in scoring with 46 points (7G, 36A). The best way to describe Pietrangelo is that he is to St. Louis what Ryan Suter is to Minnesota. Pietrangelo is paired on defense with Carl Gunnarsson (2G, 10A)
The second pairing on defense for St. Louis is Jay Bouwmeester and Zybnek Michalek. Bouwmeester is 6'4, 212 and the most physical of the Blues defenseman while Michalek gives St. Louis a good shot blocking presence.
The third paring of Barrett Jackman and Kevin Shattenkirk would be the top defensive pairing on a few NHL teams. Jackman has been a mainstay on the St. Louis blue line since 2002 while Shattenkirk was a +19 on the ice this year with 25 of his 44 points coming on the power play.
GOALTENDING:
If it wasn't for Devan Dubnyk this preview isn't being written.
Dubnyk was acquired from Arizona on January 14th. All Dubnyk has done since coming to Minnesota is solidify the goal tending position, going 27-9-2 with a save percentage of .936 and a Goals-against Average of 1.78.
More importantly Dubnyk's play added some much needed stability in net and inspired confidence in a team that was lacking it between November and January.
While Minnesota knows who they are going with in net, St. Louis can't say the same thing.
For most of the season the job in net was shared by Brian Elliott and Jake Allen.
Elliott started 45 games this season and had a record of 26-14-3 with a save percentage of .917 and a GAA of 2.26. Despite being with St. Louis since 2012, Elliott has never been able to seize the job and become the number one goaltender for the Blues.
Allen was 32-22-7 on the season with a save percentage of .913 and a GAA of 2.26. Allen is considered the goaltender of the future in St. Louis. The Blues haven't announced yet who will start in Game One. Expect to see both goalies at some point throughout this series.
COACHING:
If you had to explain Mike Yeo's coaching career to someone it would go something like this. Yeo's teams start fast before hitting a slump mid-season, spending the second half of the year trying to play their way back into a playoff spot.
For the third season in a row Minnesota was able to play their way back into the playoff picture, clinching a wild card spot in the process.
Yeo's first appearance ended in five games against Chicago while his second appearance saw him win his first playoff series over Colorado in seven games before once again being bounced out by the Blackhawks.
Once again Yeo finds himself going against a coach with a Stanley Cup on his resume.
St. Louis coach Ken Hitchcock was awarded his only Stanley Cup in 1999 as the head coach of the Dallas Stars. Hitchcock has a post-season record of 74-68. Besides his Stanley Cup in Dallas, Hitchcock has also coached Philadelphia to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2004 and was behind the bench in Columbus when they made their first playoff appearance back in 2009.
With St. Louis, Hitchcock has reached the second round just once back in 2012. The last two years have seen the Blues bounced out of the first round in six games by Los Angeles and Chicago respectively.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Minnesota will have to be better on the power play than they were in the regular season.
The Wild was 27th in the NHL on the power play, scoring only 39 times in 246 opportunities. Minnesota also gave up three short-handed goals on the season.
For as bad as the power play was, the penalty kill was excellent for the Wild as they finished first overall in the NHL. Minnesota only gave up 32 goals while shorthanded and scored four times while down a man.
St. Louis had the fourth best power play on the season, scoring 56 goals in 251 attempts. The Blues did however allow five shorthanded goals.
The penalty kill wasn't bad for St. Louis either as they were eighth overall in the NHL giving up 42 goals while being shorthanded 257 times. The Blues did also score two shorthanded goals on the season.
X-FACTOR:
For Minnesota the X-Factor is going to be a player that can use his speed to fly around the ice, causing havoc and force St. Louis to do a lot of chasing. Normally that would describe an Erik Haula or a Jordan Schroeder but with the Wild seemingly healthy it's unknown how much ice time each player will receive.
That's why the biggest X-Factor for Minnesota is forward Jason Zucker.
Zucker is healthy again after missing nearly two months with a broken collarbone. Zucker is a goal scorer and one of the fastest skaters on the Wild. Zucker's presence on the ice will be a key factor in any success Minnesota has against the Blues.
For St. Louis, the X-Factor is forward Olli Jokinen, not for what he can do on the ice but for what he represents.
This is only Jokinen's second time in the playoffs in his 17 year NHL career. His only other playoff appearance came with Calgary in 2009 when the Flames were eliminated by Chicago in six games.
There is a belief among NHL circles that you can't win with Olli Jokinen on your team. The St. Louis Blues are the best team Jokinen has played for in his career. That belief will be put to the test this spring.
PREDICTION:
What this series comes down to is whose style of play is more effective. If St. Louis can keep play along the boards, push around the Wild forwards and take away the transition game for Minnesota, this series will be done in five games.
For the Wild to win this series they need to do to the Blues what Montreal did to Boston in the playoffs last season. Minnesota needs to force the Blues to chase them up and down the ice and take dumb penalties in the process and capitalizing on their power play opportunities.
This is the deepest and most balanced roster St. Louis has had in 15 years. The Blues are good enough to go on a Stanley Cup run if they can get out of the first round.
When comparing Minnesota and St. Louis, the two games they played against each other back in March is a good indication of what to expect in this series.
The Wild were outplayed in St. Louis and yet found a way to win 3-1. A week later in St. Paul, Minnesota outplayed the Blues and won convincingly 6-3.
The Wild have been one of the best teams in the Western Conference since the All-Star break. It remains to be seen if Minnesota is good enough to reach the Stanley Cup Finals but after seeing how the Wild has played over the last couple months, they are good enough to win this playoff series.
So the prediction: Minnesota wins in seven games.
