What exactly is a forecast model?
MINNEAPOLIS – We know our weather can be unpredictable, no matter the season. That's why meteorologists rely on different forecast models to help us prepare.
But what exactly is a forecast model? Good Question. Kirsten Mitchell learned that understanding them is not an exact science.
A model is essentially an equation that helps meteorologists predict our weather, according to National Weather Service Meteorologist Eric Ahasic.
"We actually use some of the most powerful computers in the world to just take the variables for temperature, pressure, wind speed, humidity, precipitation, all these different variables, plug them in those equations and use the computing power to solve them," Ahasic said.
WCCO Chief Meteorologist Chris Shaffer says there's a bit of a "butterfly effect" involved.
"If something goes wrong sooner, everything goes wrong later," Shaffer said.
Ahasic says each model trends a little different.
"We're looking at over 100 [models], maybe even close to 200," Ahasic said. "People see the 40 inches of snow and they freak out, but that's not gonna happen."
Forecasting is getting more accurate. Averaged over a year, a five-day forecast is 90% accurate, and a seven-day forecast is 80%. By day 10, it's down to about 50%.
"People expect the best these days, and we're doing the best to give them that with NEXT Weather, and the model data getting better really assists us," Shaffer said.
The National Weather Service says after every weather event, they look back on which models were most accurate. That way they can look to those models in the future.
