Twins Blog: 8 Things To Watch
by Dan Cook, 830 WCCO Radio
Opening Day is nigh, and that means the 2015 Minnesota Twins campaign is upon us. After four years of futility, can new field management and an amped-up starting rotation get things turned around?
Here are eight things to watch for as we kick off another year of baseball on the WCCO Twins Blog:
- The Outfield
Torii is back!
Okay, so he's not the same Torii Hunter who departed the Twins after the 2007 season, but he still has the same gregarious personality and drive to win -- both of which have been somewhat lacking in the Twins clubhouse of late.
He's shown he can still hit some, as his .286/.319/.765 slash-line, 52 extra-base hits and 83 RBI from 2014 demonstrate. But he's certainly not as mobile in the outfield as he used to be -- his -2.4 dWAR last year according to Baseball Reference was a career low. And given the uncertainty in the rest of the outfield, that could be an issue.
Center field is a complete question mark. It won't be a strict platoon of Jordan Schafer and newcomer Shane Robinson, but they'll both get time patrolling the largest part of Target Field.
The Twins were hoping that Aaron Hicks would finally step up and take the spot, but the same attention-lapses and noncompetitive at-bats that have plagued him in the past, showed up again this spring.
If Schafer and Robinson can't plug the hole in center, Hicks could be called upon, though it won't be a shock if it's decided he needs a change of scenery.
Plus there's that highly-touted center-field prospect lurking in Chattanooga ...
As for left field, it's safe to say Oswaldo Arcia had a dreadful spring. He'll never be known as a defensive wizard, but he's shown flashes of competence in the past. Just not so far this year. Whether that's affecting his patience and approach at the plate, or vice versa, there are a LOT of questions surrounding the 23-year-old slugger. If the Twins had another ready-made option for left field, it's possible Ozzie may not have made the trip north. As it is, if he struggles early and Eddie Rosario plays well, an early demotion isn't out of the realm of possibility.
- Will Ricky Nolasco Bounce Back?
There's no question that Ricky Nolasco's first season with the Twins was a disaster. After signing his 4-year, $49 million contract, the Twins were certainly hoping for more than a 6-12 record with a 5.38 ERA.
But there's reason to suspect that Nolasco could revert back to form in 2015. His career numbers suggest he has the ability to pitch closer to 200 innings and in 2013 he had a sub-4 ERA. Reports out of Ft. Myers have him in better physical condition than he was in 2014, which would suggest a better opportunity to stay healthy and avoid the nagging issues that affected his output last year.
Fans also shouldn't underestimate the potential effect of a role-change as well. Nolasco entered into 2014 as the Twins Opening Day starter and de facto Number 1 starter -- neither of which seemed to suit his personality and talents. This year, he'll be third in the Twins rotation behind Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana. Perhaps the lessened pressure will help Ricky find the level of consistency he clearly lacked last season.
- Ervin Santana Back In The AL
The Twins biggest free agent acquisition this season was starter Ervin Santana, who signed a 4-year $55M deal in the off-season.
Santana has spent the bulk of his career in the American League, including eight years with the Angels and a strong 2013 campaign with the Kansas City Royals. He wasn't quite as good last year in the National League with the Braves as he was in '13, but still posted a very respectable 14-10 record with a 3.95 ERA. And the Twins are banking on him reverting to that 2013 form now that's he back in the AL.
Over the course of his career, Santana's thrown 200+ innings five times and last season threw 196. That kind of endurance will go a long way towards balancing out a Twins rotation that's sorely lacked pitchers who've been able to go deep in games the last four years. And it's all the more important given the question marks which exist in the bullpen.
- The Bullpen
So there's Glen Perkins and ... Well there's Glen Perkins and plenty of questions.
Brian Duensing is back and setting aside one disastrous outing, had a decent spring. Casey Fien seems to have grabbed the 8th inning role last manned by the departed Jared Burton.
But after that?
Mike Pelfrey, who lost out on the fifth starter role, will be the designated long-man. But Pelfrey, who wasn't happy about not starting, has never pitched out of the pen and it remains to be seen how effective he'll be in that role.
And then there are the new guys.
Tim Stauffer was a free-agent signing in the off-season and it was thought he might contend for the fifth starter role. Those thoughts ended quickly and if it wasn't for Stauffer's $2.2 million contract, his shaky outings this Spring might have cost him his roster spot all together.
Blaine Boyer was signed by the Twins to a minor league deal in the off-season and quite literally pitched his way onto the team over the course of the spring. His career numbers won't bowl you over, but his poise and array of pitches were enough to win the trust of Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan.
J.R. Graham was a Rule 5 draft pick from the Atlanta Braves, meaning he has to stay on the big league club all year, or be offered back to Atlanta. Graham can throw hard, but hasn't spent any time above Double-A ball, so it's hard to project how his stuff will play against regular big league line-ups.
Every bullpen evolves over the course of a 162-game season. The Twins hope there won't be a need for a complete make-over early in the year.
- How Will Danny Santana Fare At SS?
It seems strange to have to ask that question, given that shortstop is Santana's natural position. But given that he played nearly twice as many games in center as he did at short last season, it's fair to ask whether he can be an every-day shortstop in the big leagues.
He committed only two errors over the course of 260+ innings at the position in 2014, and seems to have the arm and range to play the position. But you don't really know until you see the guy actually do it over the course of a full season.
Plus, there'll be the temptation to put him back out in center if the Schafer/Robinson combo doesn't work, if the club doesn't feel comfortable going with Hicks and if a certain uber-prospect isn't ready yet.
Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have made it clear that their intention is to leave Santana at short, but as the saying goes, "even the best laid plans ... often go awry."
There's also the question of whether Santana's bat will remain what it was in 2014. A .405 baBIP is entirely unsustainable. When that normalizes, what will it do to his .319/.353/.472 slash-line? Santana's speed helps turn ground-ball outs into infield hits, but will he be able to be the same offensive spark that he was in 2014?
- Is Joe Mauer At A Crossroads?
Mauer enters the fifth year of his 8-year, $184 million contract seemingly at a crossroads of his career. After switching positions last year, Mauer set a career low in batting average (.277), and if you toss out his injury-shortened 2011 season, he also set career lows in on-base percentage (.361), slugging percentage (.371), OPS (.732) and home runs (4).
Over the last three years his strikeouts have increased (88, 89 and 96) and his walks have decreased (90, 61 and 60).
And what are we hearing out of Spring Training? "It finally seems like Joe is healthy."
Where have we heard THAT before?
So what's fair to expect from Joe at this point? He'll turn 32 on April 19. Short of healing from serious injuries (or perhaps consuming illegal substances), players don't generally improve into their mid-30's. And with Joe's sometimes frustrating penchant for withholding information about his health, we really don't know exactly how banged up he's been over the last few years.
Could having a full season at first base under his belt and perhaps shedding some nagging injuries result in a return to a form more reminiscent of his MVP years?
It's not impossible. But it may be more likely that the version of Joe we've seen over the last three to four years is the player he's going be over the remainder of his contract.
- How Will Paul Molitor Manage?
The simple question to this answer is, nobody knows. Having never managed before, Molitor's got a steep learning curve. Not as steep as it could be, given his Hall of Fame resume and familiarity with the Twins organization. But still, when you're calling the shots for the first time, it's a different story.
Molitor's long been lauded for his skill with teaching base-running, so it's not unreasonable to expect the Twins to be a little more active on the base paths this season. He's also not averse to advanced metrics, so perhaps the Twins will employ more defensive shifts and try to find more advantageous match-ups with lineups and pitching changes.
But mostly that's speculation. Even watching Spring Training can't give you a solid feel for how Molitor will handle things.
And while Tom Brunansky returns as hitting coach, and Joe Vavra is back -- this time as the bench coach -- there are plenty of new faces surrounding Molitor on the coaching staff as well.
Pitching coach Neil Allen spent seven years helping the Tampa Bay Rays minor-league system produce a series of talented pitchers. But outside of a short stint as the Yankees bullpen coach, he's a rookie to a big league staff as well. And he'll have his hands plenty full trying to manage a bullpen that's been grossly over-worked in recent years and a rotation that, while better than previous seasons, still has room for improvement.
Eddie Guardado is back with the Twins as the bullpen coach. And while "Everyday Eddie" made his name working out of the bullpen, this is the first time he's been the man in charge out there.
Rudy Hernandez (assistant hitting), Butch Davis (1st base) and Gene Glynn (3rd base) are all new to the Twins as well.
How the coaching staff blends together will be one of many interesting storylines for the Twins this season
- When Do the Kids Get Here?
We've all heard the names -- Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario -- but will 2015 be the year we finally get to see them in Twins uniforms during the regular season?
The overly-simplistic answer? Probably.
Health will be a big issue. Miguel Sano is back after missing a season with Tommy John surgery, and Byron Buxton is hoping he got a career's-worth of odd injuries out of the way in one nightmarish 2014 season. Both are prodigious talents -- some of Sano's home runs in Spring Training were eye-popping -- but both have rust to shake off and things to prove at the Double-A level before they can be considered ready for The Show.
That being said, if they both stay healthy, it's hard to imagine them not getting "the call" at some point in 2015. Sano seems closer skill-wise, but Buxton may fill the greater need if the center-field situation goes sideways.
Alex Meyer was in the mix for the fifth starter position during Spring Training, but again displayed the lack of consistency that has kept him from getting called up before now. Sooner or later, injuries happen, and there will be an opening. The only question is whether he's pitching better than Trevor May at Triple-A Rochester when it does. May looked better in Fort Myers and could be the first starter to get a call-up if necessary.
Eddie Rosario is an interesting case. He's shown talent at the plate and considering the Twins shaky corner outfield defense, would be a definite upgrade with the glove. Does he have his maturity issues worked out? Can he put consistent at-bats together? If he checks those two boxes, he'll likely get a call up as well.
And those are just a few of the many potential storylines that will play themselves out over the course of 2015.
Buckle up, Twins fans. An interesting season starts on Monday.
