What effect will Trump's legal troubles have on the 2024 election? Not much, experts argue.
MINNEAPOLIS — This week, lawyers for former President Donald Trump will go before the Supreme Court to argue that he should not be kicked off any state ballot because of his alleged role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. It's one of several cases, both civil and criminal, that Trump faces.
But how will these cases potentially impact the 2024 presidential election ... or will they at all?
The U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments that Trump should remain kicked off the presidential primary ballot in Colorado and in other states. Many experts, including Hamline University legal professor David Schultz, believe the high court will side with Trump.
"I think at the end, they're going to say the people get to decide not the courts, but they're going to find a different way to say that," Schultz said. "I think the court really the Supreme Court has learned a lesson from 24 years ago ... in Bush v. Gore, not to get involved in deciding presidential elections."
Trump has argued that all the cases against him are the result of the U.S. Justice Department, and that prosecutors have a vendetta against him. Polls show his supporters agree, with 66% of Republicans believing the legal cases against him have been handled unfairly. In contrast, 70% of Democrats feel Trump is being treated fairly.
Trump supporter and former Republican Attorney General candidate Doug Wardlow says the legal problems have only made Trump more popular.
"I think it's absolutely politically motivated. If you look at the multiplicity of cases against President Trump, all of them are using very novel and unique, unprecedented interpretations of the law," Wardlow said. "Trump is becoming a symbol for opposing the position of law and standing up for the Constitution and liberty and freedom and the rule of law itself. And as he becomes that symbol that's really generating a lot of support. You can't vote against a symbol who's standing up against tyranny, right? That's kind of one of the things I think that is propelling him so far ahead in the primaries. And he's going to be the nominee because he is a victim of political weaponization of law, and he's a symbol of opposing, basically, the destruction of the American republic."
Recent financial filings show Trump has used $50 million of campaign donations on his legal bills. As for that $83 million award against him, Trump actually has to pay up even as he is appealing the ruling.
"He has to either put in the court's escrow account $83 million and then appeal, or he could go to a surety company, a bondsman just like in criminal cases, post a bond for the $83 million. That would require approximately 10% down, so you'd have to give the company $8.3 million," attorney Joe Tamburino, not affiliated with the case, said.
Arguments in the case before the U.S. Supreme Court over Colorado seeking to keep Trump off the ballot will start Thursday morning. You will be able to listen to the arguments on the U.S. Supreme Court's website, albeit without accompanying video. You will be able to hear their questions, and if other cases are any indication, you will likely be able to make some educated guesses about which way the justices are leaning.
The decision likely won't come down immediately, but it will have to come down soon. The Colorado primary is Super Tuesday, or March 5 — the same day as Minnesota's.
Another case in the mix is in New York, where a judge has already found Trump and his two sons fraudulently ran their businesses. Punitive damages in that case could happen any day; prosecutors are asking for a $370 million judgment against the Trumps.
As to whether any of the criminal cases are likely to be completed by the time the Republican National Convention happens in July, or before the November general election, experts across the board say its unlikely a case will be completed by the former. It's more of a toss-up on the latter.
