Swing state polls show important trends ahead of 2024 presidential election, analysts agree
MINNEAPOLIS — Analysts say national polls that show how tight the race is between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are not key indicators ahead of the election.
Instead, they say your focus should be on polls in the swing states since the winner of the presidency is not determined by the popular vote, but by the electoral college.
Hamline University professor David Schultz says nothing has really shifted in months in national polls.
"Ignore all the national polls," he said. "What's really critical to look at are the polls in the swing states, and they are close."
States like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely decide the election, Schultz said.
University of Minnesota professor Larry Jacobs said "I think folks need to kind of chill out on the poll consumption… I think the key thing to know is this race is as close as we've seen. It may be another photo finish like we saw in 2016 and 2020."
Democratic strategist Abou Amara said that the polls are important for both campaigns because they still make key decisions based on them.
"The polling is driving nearly every decision of the campaign," Amara said. "Where you're going to campaign, who you're going to talk to, the messages you want to get across, and the timing in which you're going to do that."
Republican strategist Amy Koch says the national polls are meaningless.
"Trump has been in the lead in six of the seven battlegrounds," she said. "If that holds, Trump will win this election."
