Predictions For The 2016 Oscar-Nominated Shorts

Looking to bolster your Oscar pool chances? Then you ought to look elsewhere.

I say this, basically, because I don't have a clue (or any real interest in) how the shorts are chosen or voted upon. I do, however, like talking about which ones I thought were well done and deserve to be seen by a wider audience.

Below are my "predictions" on what I think will win – in terms of appealing to most people -- and what should win -- in terms of just being well-crafted, original or even a masterpiece.

If you don't trust my picks (and I don't see any reason why you should), go see the shorts for yourself. The ones in the animated and live action categories are playing over at the Lagoon Cinema in Minneapolis.

Best Animated Short

	Bear Story (Gabriel Osorio & Pato Escala) A tale of enslavement and escape in a European-looking world filled with anthropomorphic animals, Bear Story plays on the heartstrings like 100-year-old music box. What's more impressive still is its mechanical, tinker-y visual style, which folds up the story in an aesthetic that's as tender as it is jittery. Accessible to both kids and adults, the short is so well-rounded it almost lacks any particularly powerful moment.
	Prologue (Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton) Gorgeous, hand-drawn animation combines with brutal sword-and-shield violence to make this short perhaps the most "adult" of the animated bunch. There's not really a story here, it's more of a fight scene (with frontal male nudity) that provokes the viewer to consider the cruel reality of humanity's past. While almost shocking in its bloodletting, there's perhaps a bit too much here left thematically unsaid. .
	World Of Tomorrow (Don Hertzfeldt) Every once in a while you come across a book or movie or game that's just bursting with creativity; this is one of those things. Don Hertzfeldt, the creator of the hilarious "Rejected" cartoons, has crafted a sci-fi short that's funnier, more thoughtful and more beautiful than many feature-length films. The story of a little girl traveling through space with a future clone of herself cannot be watched just once. It demands to be mulled over, chewed on and seen through different lenses.
	Sanjay's Super Team (Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle) This is the Disney/Pixar entry. It almost goes without saying that it's colorful and slick and goes straight to the heart. What's exceptional about it is that it focuses on the cultural experience of a young boy and his being pulled between the West and the traditions of his Indian ancestors. The breakthrough comes with a synthesis of sorts (an imaginary battle sequence) wherein Sanjay is able to combine both cultures, creating something new.
	We Can't Live Without Cosmos (Konstantin Bronzit) This cartoony-looking short probably has the most heart of the bunch. It's about two cosmonaut best friends who dream of nothing but getting into space together. But tragedy strikes when one is lost in the void and the other heartbreakingly retreats into his spacesuit. A touching exploration of friendship, longing and collective dreaming.

Will Win: There's probably some alternative universe out there in which World Of Tomorrow loses, but it's not this one.

Deserves To Win: To make something that is smart, funny, thought-provoking and unmistakably stylish is no easy feat. World of Tomorrow just outclasses the competition.

Best Live Action Short

	Ave Maria (Basil Khalil and Eric Dupont) A somewhat wry look at religion, Ave Maria is without doubt the funniest short in the group. It follows a group of Israeli settlers on the West Bank whose car somehow slams into a convent. Humor alights as the nuns try to keep their vow of silence and the settlers struggle not to work on the Sabbath. Under the surface, though, are darker currents of conflict.
	Day One (Henry Hughes) An Afghan-American woman's first day on the job as an interpreter for U.S. troops is tough. A hunt for a bomb-maker ends with the newbie delivering a baby.Day One is difficult to watch in a few ways, but mostly because so much of the drama feels forced. While it's obviously trying to explore gender and cultural differences between the West and Afghans, it does so without proper reason or nuance.
	Everything Will Be Okay (Patrick Vollrath) The abduction of a child by her father. The film goes from an afternoon of rides and toys with the tension quickly building into a finale wherein the father, although he's totally the bad guy, isn't without our sympathy. Everything Will Be Okay is a chilling, modern snapshot into the darker aspects of divorce, family and love.
	Shok (Jamie Donoughue) Memories of the war in Kosovo fall into place just perfectly here. The tragic story of two boys and their war-torn friendship might even be too symmetrical in its telling. Still, it's gripping and evocative, prompting us to reflect on the cares of childhood amidst the cruelty of war.
	Stutterer (Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage) Online dating is tough when you're terrified if anyone actually wants to meet you. That's the case in this sweet 10-minute short, wherein a lonely typographer can't tell his longtime internet crush he's got a serious speech impediment. Yet, after some trials, he summons the courage to act. As he approaches his fate, we root for him. And even if the ending glitters a bit too much with teary sentiment, it's enjoyable. (Although one could harbor suspicions it's all an advertisement for Facebook chat.)

Will Win: This is tough, as none of the entries really stands out as an obvious crowd pleaser. Yet, I'm leaning towards the humor of Ave Maria. It's the only one that's capable of making you laugh (on purpose).

Deserves To Win: Because it reminds me so much of other hyper-focused relationship dramas from northern Europe, I got to give it to Everything Will Be Okay. It explores a common crime of passion, but doesn't boil down the emotional complexity of the situation. By virtue of its nonjudgemental eye, what ends up on screen is a work that's moving in surprising ways, and deeply human.

In:
• Academy Awards