National Weather Service releases first spring flood outlook for Minnesota — here's what it says
Next week's warmup is a sign that spring is around the corner. While many of us are excited about the thaw and the new season, it can come with a risk of flooding.
Because river flooding is common across the Upper Midwest during spring, the National Weather Service issues special outlooks this time of year. The first one was issued on Tuesday.
"What we are considering is, what has the winter been like so far — how much moisture is in the soils, where are the rivers right now in terms of stream flow, and then, obviously, how much snow we have out there on the landscape, and how much water is in that snowpack," Shawn DeVinny, a senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities, said.
DeVinny says our lackluster snowfall is a big reason why spring flooding is less likely across most of the state this year, but the complex forecast involves more than that.
"We do have above-average frost depths, which can cause a problem if you put a bunch of rain on top of that soil. And so that's yet to be seen, but it's that that could be a factor," DeVinny said.
He explained the odds for river flooding are a little higher in the Red River Valley, where more snow has fallen.
However, intense rainfall anywhere over the coming weeks could lead to ice jams as well. That part of the forecast remains a toss-up since the weak La Nina isn't giving meteorologists any big hints about the season ahead.
"I would say don't let your guard down, and these things can change and change quickly. Just because we're saying it's a below normal probabilistic risk of flooding doesn't mean it's not going to happen," DeVinny said.
The NWS flood outlook is updated every two weeks.
