NOAA's 2024-25 winter forecast is out. Here's what to expect in Minnesota.
MINNEAPOLIS — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook on Thursday, revealing what Minnesotans can expect weather-wise in the coming months.
The forecast for this winter — the months of December, January and February — is for warm and dry weather across the southern U.S., and colder and snowier than average conditions in the north.
The odds slightly favor colder-than-average temperatures, especially in western Minnesota.
The amount of precipitation — snow, generally — is likely to be above average during that same stretch. The average amount of snow is between 50-55 inches. Last year, the Twin Cities got about three feet.
"I think a lot of people were hopeful, at least that spoke to me, that we'd have another winter like that (last year), but there's essentially no chance of that happening again," WCCO NEXT Weather Meteorologist Mike Augstyniak said.
Cool ocean-surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean — a pattern called La Niña — tend to bring this type of weather to the U.S. in the winter. But, not all La Niña winters play out like this.
Two recent examples are the winter of 2011-2012 and the winter of 2016-2017.
Both years featured a moderate-to-weak La Niña pattern, and the long-range forecast for both years was for colder and snowier weather in the Twin Cities. But both years ended up being extremely mild, and pretty snow-less.
It's a reminder that many competing factors play a role, and seasonal forecasts like these are just the most likely outcome.
