Minnesota House races will determine balance of power at state capitol
ST. PAUL, Minn. — At the top of the ticket this fall, voters this fall will make their voices heard on who should be the next President of the United States.
But also on the ballot are lesser known candidates with deeper ties to Minnesota communities: candidates running for the state House.
All 134 seats in the Minnesota House are up for grabs and the outcome will determine the balance of power in St. Paul: will the DFL trifecta—control of the House, Senate and governor's office—stay or will it end after two years in power?
A recent Minnesota Star Tribune poll found voters are almost evenly split in their opinions with 49% saying they approve of how Gov. Tim Walz and the Democrats in the legislature have governed since winning back the state Senate in 2022. And 47% say they disapprove.
"The things that we worked on are things people care about when we've invested in making childcare more affordable, making prescription drugs more affordable, making housing more affordable," said House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, in an interview. "And so when we talk to folks at the door, they're very happy we protected reproductive freedom, but they're also happy about the work we did that affects their pocketbook."
Hortman is looking to defend the DFL majority, which currently holds 70 seats compared to the 64 Republicans have. The GOP only needs to flip four to take back the speaker's gavel, but Hortman said she is confident about their chances to hold on.
"In 2022, we were supposed to lose. In 2024, we're supposed to win. We don't take that for granted at all," she added. "We're working harder than we ever have before. We've raised more money than we ever have before. We knocked on more doors. We communicated with voters in the mailbox and digital more than we ever have before because we don't take anything for granted."
The House DFL reported raising $5.6 million this year for their campaign.
National Democrats are trying to protect the Minnesota House, too, as they target legislative chambers across the country that are currently held by Democrats or are within reach. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) recently made an additional $500,000 investment in Minnesota to bolster DFL candidates in the home stretch.
"It's such a model for how one could govern and how you govern on behalf of people, and not your own power," said Heather Williams, president of the DLCC. "There is a story that so many folks could learn from when we think about this election, we think about how to create more of these democratic trifectas, how to win more majorities so that people can be helped in the ways that they were able to do here."
Lawmakers in the state Senate are not up for re-election this fall; they serve four year terms. There is one special election for the seat left vacant by Kelly Morrison, who stepped down to run for Congress.
Republicans want to restore 'balance' back in St. Paul, feel confident in their candidates
House Republicans so far have had a record-setting fundraising haul at $1.845 million collected year to date and its campaign arm surpassed the number of unique donations in 2022, the House Republican Campaign Committee said.
House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, believes this reflects the momentum shifting towards Republicans and that there is a desire for Minnesota to have divided government once again.
"Full one party, Democrat control has been very fast. There's been a lot of things that have been pushed through without really hearing all the voices of Minnesota, and so knowing that we want to bring that balance back," Demuth told WCCO.
In that Star Tribune poll asking likely voters about how they feel about the DFL trifecta, in everywhere but Hennepin and Ramsey counties a majority of voters said they disapprove of how Democrats have governed.
In the Twin Cities, metro suburbs, 54% disapprove and 44% approve. That gap widens in Southern and Northern Minnesota.
"That is not a surprise to me, and I was pleased to see that it was as close as it was," Demuth said. "Looking back, knowing we spent an $18 billion surplus, raised taxes and fees almost another $10 billion, and inflation and trying to afford our lives here in Minnesota is more difficult. That is directly as a result of what was passed in the legislature and Governor Walz signed it into law," Demuth said.
House races can be decided by a few dozen or couple hundred votes in some cases and only a handful of the 134 across the state are competitive. Demuth acknowledges that Republicans "have always been outspent by Democrats" but said she feels good about the GOP candidates running this cycle.
Hortman said the political divide reflected in the Star Tribune poll illustrates that Minnesota has been and still is a purple state.
"It is a very closely divided state between Republicans and Democrats, and we expect a very hard fought campaign," she said.
Democrats look to build on what they started, while Republicans focus on tax cuts and government accountability
In the last two years of DFL control, Democrats have passed significant policy wins including abortion rights, gun safety measures, paid family and medical leave, legal cannabis and clean energy benchmarks.
"We heard from Minnesotans really loud and clear in 2022 the issues that they want us to focus on, and we're hearing those again: education, healthcare, economy," Hortman said.
If voters deliver them the majority in the House for another two years, Hortman said her caucus will look to advance more gun violence prevention policy, like requiring the safe storage of firearms, which failed to advance in the narrow DFL majority in the Senate.
"We hear the public continuing to push us, and unfortunately, we continue to have these tragedies where there are very small children who are playing together in a home and will badly injure or kill someone. And I think the rest of the public says, ''isn't there something we can do about that? And there is something we can do about that,'" she said.
When lawmakers return to St. Paul for the 2025 session in January, the focus will be crafting the next two-year state budget. Demuth said Republicans want to prioritize tax cuts and improving student achievement as test scores stagnate.
She also wants the legislature to respond to reports of fraud—like the Feeding Our Future scandal—under state agencies' watch.
"We definitely want accountability within the agencies, and that is part of the budgeting process," Demuth said. "So definitely tax reductions, less government bloat, getting a hold of the fraud. We definitely want safe communities across the state."
One proposal that failed to clear the finish line last year would require insurance to cover the costs for IVF treatments. The bill's author vows to make it her top priority next session, after leaders said it was not the right time this past session in a non-budget year.
Hortman still has concerns about how much a mandate like that would cost the state, but she left the door open to the possibility of passage.
"The Affordable Care Act has changed the mandated coverage nationwide. And so when states want to change mandated coverage from what's in the Affordable Care Act, there's a budget impact to that. And I think the budget impact in Minnesota is in the tens to hundreds of millions [of dollars]," she said. "So it really depends on what's in the state budget forecast and whether we're able to afford that. I think it's something we definitely want to keep talking about, because people who want to start a family should have both the right and the means to start the family if they would like to."
Lawmakers return to St. Paul on January 14 for the 2025 session.
