4 Reasons The Gophers Can Make The NCAA Tournament
If you're a University of Minnesota basketball fan, it's time to take a breath and relax.
Yes, Richard Pitino's Gophers have lost five straight Big Ten games. Yes, they've blown double-digit leads in at least three league games. They've failed to finish games strong and make winning plays, and Saturday's loss to Maryland dropped the Gophers to 3-6 in league play through their first nine games.
Before the loss to Maryland, four of Minnesota's losses came by a combined 11 points. Count the Terrapins and it's five by 18 points. That's a margin of 3.6 points, and it's how close the Gophers are between contending for a league title and being near the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
It's also why we need to relax and not get so worked up about their NCAA Tournament chances. The Gophers are 15-7, and current projections across the board have them comfortably in the Big Dance, not even a bubble team. At the same time, there now needs to be a sense of urgency for the team as there is little margin for error through the second half of the league schedule if they want to guarantee themselves a spot in March Madness.
There are certainly several concerns to address and things that need fixing, but here are four reasons why the Gophers could and will have their name called on Selection Sunday. Pitino has yet to reach the Big Dance at Minnesota. The Gophers' last trip was in Tubby Smith's final season, when the Gophers beat UCLA in the opening round.
Quality Wins Early
We knew this Gophers team was much improved from last year's 8-23 disaster after finishing the non-conference schedule 12-1. That's right, they won more games before the Big Ten schedule even started than they did all of last year. The best case scenario in the non-conference is to have the opponent you beat contend in their conference, if not win it. That makes that victory early in the season a quality win on the schedule when it comes choosing potential bubble teams on Selection Sunday.
The Gophers' quality non-conference wins included UT-Arlington, St. John's, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and even Arkansas State. The quality wins early in the schedule gave the Gophers a chance to be selected for the Big Dance, now they have to earn the right in the last nine Big Ten games.
Favorable Schedule Last 9 Games
The Gophers have nine games left before the Big Ten Tournament, where the winner there automatically gets to the NCAA Tournament. The last nine games feature five at home and four on the road. It starts with Saturday at Illinois, a very winnable game against another team struggling in league play. The home games left are Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska. The other road games are Rutgers, Maryland and Wisconsin.
Win your five remaining home games, beat Illinois and Rutgers and regardless of Maryland and Wisconsin, you can go to the Big Ten Tournament without having to worry about getting into the Big Dance. The opportunity is there, now they just have to go out, execute and get the job done.
Gophers No. 24 In RPI, No. 5 Strength of Schedule
When it comes to at large selections, the NCAA Selection Committee takes a hard look when it comes to teams on the bubble at the Ratings Percentage Index and a team's strength of schedule. That's where the Gophers are currently in great shape. Minnesota is currently third in the Big Ten behind Maryland and Wisconsin with a No. 24 RPI. The Gophers are also second in the league and No. 5 in the country in strength of schedule, behind only Nebraska. So in other words, they've played one of the tougher schedules in the country and they've beaten quality teams. The path to the NCAA Tournament is there.
Big Ten Tournament
The beauty of the Big Ten Tournament is also the very reason some are critical of post-season tournaments before the Big Dance. Conference tournaments allow one more chance to teams that largely struggled during the regular season to make one final push. While the odds of a bottom-feeding team contending in the league tournament are slim, the opportunity is at least there.
For the Gophers, the best-case scenario is to do well enough in the regular season that you don't have to rely on a Big Ten Tournament win to lock up an at-large selection. That requires a finish of 10-8 in the league, maybe even 9-9. It means at least a 6-3 mark in the last nine games. It would be advantageous for the Gophers to avoid a bottom four finish in the Big Ten and avoid a Wednesday play-in game. But Minnesota, like all Big Ten teams, will be looking to use the league tournament to build momentum if not contend for the NCAA automatic bid.
The reality of the Gophers' season is this: Right now, they are comfortably in the Big Dance. But that can change if they don't take care of their business. The bottom line? Win your last five home games and get road wins over Illinois and Rutgers, and the Gophers can put their dancing shoes on.
