State demographer: More young people moving away from Minnesota than coming, impacting workforce
ST. PAUL, Minn. — The workforce in Minnesota is growing, but slowly, as more young people move to other states compared to those settling in Minnesota, the state's demographer said Wednesday.
That sluggish increase in the number of people who have a job or are looking for one could stunt economic growth and create workforce shortages for employers. Contributing to that slowdown is an aging population and falling birth rates.
Dr. Susan Brower, the demographer, told the Senate Jobs Committee those two factors mirror trends across the U.S. and other countries, but historically it hasn't been the norm.
"Without the contribution of migration from other states or from other countries, we can expect this very, very slow growth to continue into the future," Brower said.
Residents in their late teens and twenties are most likely to move to another state -- and the greatest losses happen when students move away for college. Not enough return after they have a degree, she said, to outpace the number leaving.
And there are jobs to fill: The Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development tracked 174,000 vacancies in November, the month for which the most recent data is available.
Minnesota had a net loss of 3,000 workers due to people leaving for other states in 2023, Brower said. She presented the data to the Senate panel for an informational hearing; lawmakers did not discuss any specific legislation or policy, but simply asked questions about the trends in Minnesota's workforce.
"My daughter was applying to physical therapy school. She got put on a waitlist by [the University of] Minnesota, and she was accepted by the University of Texas. Now we have a bright, young physical therapist in Austin, Texas, instead of Austin, Minnesota," said Sen. Eric Pratt, R-Prior Lake. "Why are these young professionals leaving?"
"The opportunities that are in front of them at the time – where are they accepted, where are they given aid — I think those things are important pieces to the puzzle," Brower replied.
She said typically people cite the reasons for their move as job, family or housing. The broader region has dealt with similar net losses of population to other states.
"The Midwest for decades has not been a net importer, or not been a destination spot above other places," Brower said. "We've seen most of that migration center around the Southwestern United States and the Southern United States."
While Minnesota may be losing workers to other states — in what Brower called "domestic migration" — the state has increased its workforce from other countries. There was a net gain of 14,000 workers from international migration in 2024, she said.
In general, there's been an uptick in immigration with increases between 20,000 and 30,000 people coming to Minnesota in each of the last three years, dates she presented show. Brower said that's likely driven by illegal crossings at the country's Southern border seeking asylum.
In 2023, more than 630,000 Minnesotans between the ages of 16 and 64 were not in the labor force. Some were in school and others were retired, but among the remaining 384,000 were parents with young children, other caregivers and people with disabilities.
Brower suggested reducing the cost of child care or increasing the availability of options — which are issues the Legislature has considered and will continue to discuss — could help bring more people in. For some, it's more cost-effective to stay home and raise children than it is to pay for child care if their wages are lower.
"How do we help our Minnesotans who do want to be in the labor force, who want to work, but maybe have challenges to do so? And I'm hoping that we can deal with some of those as we are in this committee," Sen. Susan Pha, DFL-Brooklyn Park said.