As legislative session looms, judge to issue ruling as soon as this week in close Minnesota House race
ST. PAUL, Minn. — A forthcoming ruling from a judge in a case challenging a state House race in Shakopee could throw another wrench in what's shaping up to be a shaky start to the legislative session next week.
State legislative leaders, political observers and constituents of House District 54A await an order from Judge Tracy Perzel, who presided over the two-day trial in the election contest for the seat. She is expected to issue a ruling as soon as this week and the outcome will have implications for the balance of power in the chamber as the legislature readies for the 2025 session that starts next Tuesday.
DFL Incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke narrowly defeated GOP candidate Aaron Paul in that race by 14 votes, a smaller margin than the 20 missing ballots from one precinct elections officials say were likely tossed in the trash by mistake.
But because of that error, Republicans are seeking a new election. Under oath at the trial, voters linked to the ballots at issue said who they voted for; Tabke's attorney said their testimony proved the outcome would remain unchanged if the ballots were recovered.
"Heaping best guess upon best guess, conjecture upon conjecture, speculation on speculation will never equal the certainty that elections require," Reid LeBeau, attorney for Paul, wrote in a brief filed with the court. "A special election remains the appropriate remedy here."
Republicans and Democrats are already in a power dispute over who has the authority to control the chamber and how, following a judge's decision in a separate election contest that barred an elected Democrat for a Roseville-area seat from taking the oath of office because he failed to meet residency requirements.
That tipped the scale to give the GOP a one-seat majority—at least temporarily, until a special election is held on Jan. 28. Immediately following the November election, before the election contests in 54A and 40B in Roseville, the House stood tied at 67 to 67.
"The evidence introduced at trial conclusively demonstrates that the fact that 20 ballots were inadvertently discarded before they were counted did not affect the outcome of the election for House District 54A and that Representative Tabke received the most votes legally cast," Tabke's attorney David Zoll wrote in a court filing ahead of the judge's decision.
Zoll asked the judge to recommend that the Minnesota House of Representatives "affirm that Representative Tabke won the 2024 general election."
The Minnesota Constitution gives power to the legislature to "judge the election returns and eligibility of its own members." It's why DFL leaders say they will boycott the first day of the legislative session if Republicans proceed with their plans to act on their one-seat majority—they fear the GOP with its 67 to 66 advantage will vote to remove Tabke from the House.
"We are waiting for that court decision, but we know that every voter should have their vote fairly counted, and we will absolutely stand behind the voters of Minnesota to ensure that that happens," GOP House Speaker-Designate Lisa Demuth told reporters during a Monday news conference when explicitly asked if Republicans would seat Tabke.
The chamber must elect a speaker, which is a powerful position overseeing how the House operates. When the House was tied, Demuth was working with DFL House Speaker-Designate Melissa Hortman on a power-sharing agreement, which Demuth and the GOP have said they now need not follow.
"What the Republicans are engaged in is an illegitimate power grab, and we're not going to stand by and just let them do it," Hortman said Monday at another news conference.
Judge Perzel said she would issue her decision in the House District 54A election contest no later than Jan. 14, which is the first day of the legislative session.
