Good Question: How Far Out Can We Forecast The Weather?
MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) --Get ready to bundle up! The National Weather Service has released its winter outlook. It predicts "cooler conditions" are most likely from Montana to western Michigan.
So, how far out can we forecast the weather? Good Question.
"When we're talking my kind of weather, like for WCCO, I always say three to five days out is pretty optimal," says WCCO Chief Meteorologist Chris Shaffer. "If you look with the next few hours, we're money. If you look at the next day, we're very good – 90-something percent."
Meteorologist crunch raw data to forecast the day-to-day forecast. When looking at the longer-term predictions, they take a more global look at trends.
For example, the development of La Niña pattern is expected for this winter. That means cooler water in the Pacific Ocean, which often means colder weather for the Upper Midwest.
"What they're looking at is not every year when there's a La Niña event is it cold and snowy, not every year," says Shaffer. "But often, it is, so you look at that and go, well yes, seven out the past eight have been that way, so logic says it would be that way."
The last La Niña pattern was during the 2011-2012 winter and it was the Twin Cities' fourth warmest winter on record. The previous winter, also a La Niña, was when the Metrodome collapsed from so much snow. That January and February the Twin Cities had 35 days in a row under freezing temperatures.
The National Weather Service does give itself some wiggle room when it comes to its winter forecast. It says there's more than a one-in-three chance there will be cooler temperatures in the Upper Midwest.
"Pay attention, it's good fodder to talk about," says Shaffer. "But it doesn't mean that's it, I'm moving to Florida."
