Astrophysicist explains why northern lights are so hard to predict
MINNEAPOLIS -- A northern lights show is looking like it may not materialize over Minnesota.
Forecasters had thought people across several states would get a shot at seeing aurora borealis later this week.
So why did the forecast change so much? WCCO spoke with Lindsay Glesener, an astrophysicist at the University of Minnesota.
"The sun goes through 11-year cycles of activity," Glesener said.
And right now, the sun is nearing its height of activity.
"There are many, many regions on the sun that can produce these big events currently," she said.
Events like geomagnetic storms.
"The most common is when you get an eruption of plasma from the sun that runs into the Earth's magnetic field, compressing it and transferring a huge amount of energy into the field," she said.
That energy can leak in, and light up the night sky.
There's been quite a buzz among aurora seekers this week. But now, it's looking more like a bust. Glesener says these forecasts are still a developing science.
"Right now we don't have any good way to say when a solar flare or a plasma eruption is going to happen," she said. "We can't predict it with that level of accuracy."
For those who still have the northern Lights on your bucket list, there will be more opportunities to come.
RELATED: What's the best spot to view the northern lights?
"A major flare watch [is] happening right now, so we could potentially get some big events that are associated with eruptions," she said. "Now whether those will be heading towards the Earth or not, I don't know, but they could."
Glesener says aurora forecasts are best one to three days out.
The University of Alaska Fairbanks had originally forecasted a high chance of northern lights this week for more than 15 states. Unfortunately, they now say that is much less likely.
