MINNEAPOLIS — With the expansion of the NFL season to 17 games and continued proliferation of the passing game, it's only a matter of time before a receiver breaks the 2,000-yard threshold.
And if any receiver in the game today is likely to do it, it's the Minnesota Vikings' Justin Jefferson.
The 24-year-old superstar has compiled an absurd 4,825 yards in just three seasons, has broken multiple league and franchise records and hasn't missed a game.
Jefferson has increased his number of catches (88/108/128) and yards (1,400/1,616/1,809) each year he's been in the league, and while that's not going to continue exponentially, there is reason to believe he has not yet reached his peak.
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The closest anyone's come to 2,000 receiving yards — and the current record-holder for single-season yardage — is the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson. He put up 1,964 in 2012. In 2021, the Los Angeles Rams' Cooper Kupp came close to Johnson's record, notching 1,947 yards.
What does Jefferson need to do to break the record?
All season, WCCO will be tracking Jefferson's progress toward breaking Johnson's record and, possibly, the 2,000 yard mark.
So, what kind of pace does he need to hit to make it there?
To break his own personal best of 1,809 yards, Jefferson will need to average 106.5 yards per game. To hit 1,965 and break Johnson's record, he'll need 115.6 yards per game. To surpass 2,000, he'll need to hit 117.6 yards a game.
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One more caveat: When Johnson set the record, he did it in just 16 games. Jefferson has 17 to hit it. So if he wants to match Johnson's average of 122.8 yards per game, he'll need to total 2,088 yards.
In his career so far, Jefferson has averaged 96.5 yards per game, though that stat has increased each year.
Could it really happen?
Is Jefferson likely to break the record, or even hit 2,000? Barring injury to him or quarterback Kirk Cousins, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Last year, the Vikings' offense ran through Jefferson — even when he wasn't open, Cousins occasionally just chucked it up to him on a prayer. That kind of trust will lead to a lot of catches for Jefferson.
Another year in head coach Kevin O'Connell's system also helps his case. O'Connell was the offensive coordinator when Kupp came close to Johnson's record, so he knows how to feed a receiver. Jefferson's first season under O'Connell was impressive — how much more impressive can it get?
Then there's Jordan Addison. The addition of a first round rookie receiver could be a boon or bane for Jefferson's chances at the record. Having a legitimate receiving talent next to him — with no offense meant to Adam Thielen or K.J. Osborn — could open things up for Jefferson, leading to fewer double teams. However, Addison could also eat into Jefferson's target share. There's also tight end T.J. Hockenson, who joined the Vikings via trade last season and, after that point, was the second-most productive at his position in the league.
Regardless of where his stats end up, it should be another exciting season from Jefferson. Follow it all here.
Jefferson reportedly going on injured reserve
Justin Jefferson is heading to injured reserve and will miss at least four games, the NFL Network reported Tuesday.
The news means Jefferson will almost certainly miss the 2,000-yard mark. The #JJ2K tracker will be on hiatus until Jefferson returns.
Jefferson suffers injury in loss to Chiefs, gets limited yards
Justin Jefferson was limited to only three receptions and 28 yards before suffering a hamstring injury that took him out of the remainder of the game. The Vikings ended up losing the game 27-20 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
With this latest performance, Jefferson is now averaging 114.2 yards a game. At that pace, he would be just short of the record with 1,941 yards over the 17-game season.
Jefferson gets 85 yards, two TDs in Vikings' 1st win
The Vikings got their first win of the season against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and Justin Jefferson continued his impressive season.
While he had a season-low 85 yards on six catches, Jefferson hauled in two touchdowns.
Through four games, he has 33 catches for 543 yards and three touchdowns. He's averaging 135.8 yards a game, putting him on pace for more than 2,300 yards, which would be historic.
To break his own franchise record, Jefferson will need to average 97.4 yards a game over the remaining 13 weeks. To break Calvin Johnson's NFL record, he'll need to hit 109.4 yards a game. To hit 2,000 yards, Jefferson needs to average 112.1 yards a game over the remaining 13 weeks. And to match Johnson's per game average, he'll need 118.9 yards a game.
Jefferson keeps stunning season going in third straight loss
Despite another loss for the Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson is continuing his historic pace to start the season.
Jefferson logged seven catches for 149 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 28-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
On the season, Jefferson has 27 catches for 458 yards and one touchdown. He's averaging 152.7 yards a game and, if he continues his current pace, is on track to finish with 2,596 receiving yards, which would be absolutely astounding.
To break his own franchise record, Jefferson will need to average 96.6 yards a game over the remaining 14 weeks. To break Calvin Johnson's NFL record, he'll need to hit 107.6 yards a game. To hit 2,000 yards, Jefferson needs to average 110.1 yards a game over the remaining 14 weeks. And to match Johnson's per game average, he'll need 116.4 yards a game.
Jefferson catches 11 for 159 yards against Eagles
Despite a crucial fumble for a touchback, Justin Jefferson put up even more yards in the second week: 11 catches for 159 yards.
Jefferson is averaging 154.5 yards a game so far. If he keeps up the pace, which would be a historic feat, he could breach 2,600 yards.
To break his own franchise record, Jefferson will need to average 100.1 yards a game over the remaining 15 weeks. To break Calvin Johnson's NFL record, he'll need to hit 110.4 yards a game. To hit 2,000 yards, Jefferson needs to average 112.7 yards a game over the remaining 15 weeks. And to match Johnson's per game average, he'll need 118.6 yards a game.
Jefferson catches 9 for 150 yards in season opener
With an excellent opening day performance, Justin Jefferson is on pace for 204 targets, 153 catches and 2,550 yards this season.
Now, it's only been one game, and that pace is unlikely to hold. But that's what extrapolating Jefferson's nine-catch, 150-yard performance to a full season would get him.
He is averaging 150 yards a game through one week. Again, that's a number that's unlikely to stay so high.
To break his own franchise record, Jefferson will need to average 103.8 yards a game over the remaining 16 weeks. To break Calvin Johnson's NFL record, he'll need to hit 113.4 yards a game. To hit 2,000 yards, Jefferson needs to average 115.6 yards a game over the remaining 16 weeks. And to match Johnson's per game average, he'll need 121.1 yards a game.