Tracking The Tropics: Tropical Depression 10 remains steady, just shy of tropical storm strength
MIAMI — An area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula has officially formed into Tropical Depression 10 Saturday afternoon.
It will be nearly stationary over the next day or day and a half before it moves north into the Gulf Monday. Advisories are issued for Mexico and Cuba, but none for the U.S. as of Saturday afternoon.
As of the 11 p.m. update Saturday night, the storm had made very little progress as it continued to organize.
The system is still a tropical depression as of Sunday morning but just shy of tropical storm strength. Hurricane Hunters will be in this system later this morning to investigate. If they find winds strong enough to classify this as a tropical storm, it will be given the name Idalia.
Through tomorrow, this system won't see much movement, and stay near the Yucatan Peninsula. Late Monday into Tuesday, soon-to-be Idalia will lift into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane. Models continue to show a strong signal for a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While it's looking likely the storm will stay well to our northwest, impacts will be felt far from the east of the center. A degree of uncertainty remains regarding South Florida's exact impacts, as changes to the forecast strength and track of Idalia are certainly a possibility. For now, expect thunderstorms to increase beginning Monday.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be our main time of impact, with gusty bands of rain anticipated and breezy to windy conditions. We'll have to monitor the threat of localized flooding under any heavy tropical downpours along with the threat of severe weather. By Thursday, as this system lifts away, conditions will begin to improve.
