Q Poll: Trump, Clinton Dominate In Florida
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MIAMI (CBSMiami) - During a campaign event near Jacksonville, Senator Marco Rubio made a prediction he may now regret.
"I believe with all my heart that the winner of the Florida primary next Tuesday will be the nominee of the Republican Party," he told a crowd of supporters.
Well, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, that man will be real estate billionaire and not the senator from Florida.
According to the poll, Trump leads Rubio 45 percent to 22 percent among Florida likely Republican primary voters, with 18 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 8 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Six percent of those surveyed said they were undecided. Nearly 20 percent who said they had already picked a candidate said they may change their mind.
"In the Sunshine State, hometown hero Sen. Marco Rubio is 23 points behind Trump and isn't even doing much better than Sen. Ted Cruz. Also discouraging for the anti-Trump folks is that Trump voters say they are less likely than those supporting any of the other candidates to change their mind in the closing days," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Among Florida likely Republican voters, Trump leads Rubio 39 percent to 27 percent among women and 50 percent to 17 percent among men. Self-described Tea Party members go 48 percent for Trump, 40 percent for Cruz and 9 percent for Rubio. Trump gets 39 percent of white, born-again evangelicals, with 30 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Rubio.
In Ohio, which will also hold their primary next Tuesday, Kasich trails Trump 38 percent to 32 percent. Cruz has 16 percent, with 9 percent for Rubio.
"With Florida the largest state awarding delegates on a winner-take-all basis, a Trump win would increase even more his chances of winning the nomination," Brown added. "Between the two March 15 battlegrounds, 165 of the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination are available."
On the Democrat side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in Florida.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton leads Sanders by a margin of 62 percent to 32 percent overall among likely Democratic primary voters.
Among Florida likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads 69 percent to 24 percent among women and 51 percent to 43 percent among men. Six percent of Democratic voters in the state said they were undecided.
Clinton ties Sanders at 49 percent among for voters 18 to 44 years old. It was the younger voter demographic, however, that propelled Sanders to an upset win over Clinton in the Michigan primary.
Clinton leads 66 percent to 26 percent among voters 45 to 64 years old and 72 percent to 21 percent among voters over 65 years old.
"Secretary Hillary Clinton has doubled-up on Sen. Bernie Sanders in Florida. With less than a week until the actual voting, it is difficult to see a path to victory for him in the Sunshine State. He just has too much ground to make up and not enough time in which to do it," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
In the other big winner-take-all primary to be decided next week, Clinton leads Sanders 52 percent to 43 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to the poll. Five percent of voters remain undecided.
"It is certainly a long shot, but Ohio is potentially a different situation for Sen. Sanders. With a 52 – 43 percent lead, Secretary Clinton's advantage is impressive, but nowhere as large as the 30 percentage point lead she has in Florida," said Brown.
The poll was conducted from March 2nd through March 7th and has an error margin of about 4 percent.
In another poll, this time by Monmouth University around the same time, Trump's lead over Rubio seems to be dwindling as Trump is at 38 percent to a gaining Rubio's 30 percent.
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