NOAA Updated Outlook: 90% Chance Of Below-Normal Season
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MIAMI (CBSMiami) – The updated outlook for the 2015 hurricane season, which started June 1, calls for 90 percent probability of a below-normal season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center's released their updated outlook Thursday which calls for a below-normal season, even more likely than first predicted in May—when the likelihood was 70 percent.
"Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started."
In 2015, two tropical storms have struck the United States this year; Ana, which made landfall in South Carolina in May, and Bill, which made landfall in Texas in June.
Since seasonal hurricane outlooks began in 1998, the 90 percent probability of a below-normal season is the highest confidence level given by NOAA.
Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:
- El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA's latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;
- Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and
- Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics.
The Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30.
