Forecasters Update Hurricane Outlook, A Busy Season Ahead
MIAMI (CBS4) – As South Florida continues to keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Emily, U.S. government forecasters have updated their Atlantic hurricane season outlook, just as the peak period for hurricanes begins.
According to the forecast, it may be just a bit more active than originally thought.
Last May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said they expected 12 to 18 named storms of which 6-10 could become hurricanes; up to six of those could become major hurricanes.
On Thursday, forecasters said they now expect up to 19 named storms of which 7-10 could strengthen into hurricanes.
"We expect considerable activity," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington.
Bells said says key climate factors predicted in May continue to support forecasters' expectations for an active season. Those factors include exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and the possible.
"The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October," Bell said. "Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we've seen so far this season."
Atmospheric and marine conditions indicate a high-activity era that began in 1995 continues, and ocean temperatures are the third warmest on record, he said.
The La Nina weather phenomenon also may redevelop this fall, Bell said.
La Nina is an unusual cooling of the Pacific waters near the equator. It cuts wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, which gives tropical storms a chance to develop and strengthen before being ripped apart.
Forecasters say La Nina helped make the 2010 season one of the busiest on record with 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes. The opposite El Nino phenomenon, which warms Pacific waters near the equator and increases wind shear over the Atlantic, helps suppress storm development.
"The numbers in May reflected the possibility that El Nino could develop. El Nino has not developed," Bell said.
The six-month Atlantic hurricane season began June 1, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.
The Mexican government reported 22 deaths after Tropical Storm Arlene came ashore June 30 with heavy rains that caused flooding and mudslides. Last week, Tropical Storm Don fizzled to a tropical depression just before crossing the Texas coastline.
Tropical Storm Emily is the season's fifth named storm.
Click Here for CBS4's tropics page and more information about Tropical Storm Emily.
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