FIU Political Analyst On Campaign Surprises & Florida's Primary
MIAMI (CBSMiami) - Tuesday's primaries in Florida and four other states could be game changers for several presidential candidates.
Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich needs wins in their home states to effectively continue on.
Three hundred and fifty eight Republican delegates will be up for grabs in Tuesday's primaries in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois; 691 Democratic delegates are on the line.
Randy Pestana, a political analyst with Florid International University's Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, said he's surprised that Donald Trump has been able to rally voters the way he has and that Senator Marco Rubio's campaign hasn't resonated with more voters.
"I think a majority of us are surprised when we saw Donald Trump come out in his first campaign, it was completely shocking to us and we thought it was reality TV but now we're seeing he's 'running the house' in the Republican party," said Pestana. "As far as Marco, it really is a surprise. He came in with hope and change in this new American century and he's lived up to it to a point. As soon as he went negative, you saw him drop off with the voters. The ones you saw leaving him don't like that message."
Pestana said there are two things Rubio needs to do to pull out a win in Florida.
"First, he needs to get the Latino voters to go out to the polls today and even that might not be enough. In addition, he needs to steal some voters from John Kasich and Ted Cruz, mostly in the northern part of the state where there's a different demographic then down here in South Florida."
Pestana said a loss Tuesday for Rubio would not be the end of his political career.
"Many are saying that if he loses this (Tuesday's primary), he should drop out. I would agree with that. But he has more delegates than John Kasich even if John Kasich were to win Ohio today. As far as looking towards the future, a lot of people have mentioned him and Adam Putnam for the 2018 governor's race. That would be interesting to watch if he decides to bow out of this race."
Pestana said he's not surprised that former Governor Jeb Bush has not officially endorsed any of the candidates at this point.
"I think Jeb Bush is waiting to see who comes out as the establishment candidate who can take on Cruz and Trump. It might be Kasich after today. I think it's still to early for Jeb Bush, I think he's hedging his bets to wait until the convention."
Pestana thinks former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will have no problems notching a Florida win.
"I think she will. Trump, while effective, not saying Trump is the nominee, he alienates so many people to the point that people are not going to come out to vote for Hillary, they are going to come to vote against Trump. So that's a big indicator of how he will do in a general election."
