Eliott's Insight 2/19/11
"Denial" Is Not a River in Cuba
In light of the revolution in Egypt, a lot of people have been asking me the same question: "If Egyptians can topple their dictator, why can't Cubans do it?"
Good question. Here's my insight into this:
Egypt and Cuba are two very different cases. Yes, both have been under totalitarian regimes for decades, but in Cuba the Castro brothers have much more control of the population and getting them out of power is more difficult. Here's why:
First of all, the eyes of the world are not on Cuba as they have been on Egypt. There are no live cameras from CBS, NBC, ABC, Al Jazeera, CNN or Fox News in Cuba. Katie Couric, Lara Logan and Anderson Cooper are not in Havana and would not get permission to cover an uprising. Facebook and Twitter? Forget about it, the internet is tightly controlled on the isalnd.
Also, the U.S. does not have relations with Cuba, therefore, we have very little influence. There is no U.S. Ambassador, and we can't pull 1.5 billion dollars in U.S. aid as we can do in Egypt.
Finally, the opposition in Cuba is very brave but loosely organized and can be quickly rounded up and thrown in prison. The real opposition is mostly living here in South Florida. And under U.S. law any Cuban who enters the U.S., even illegally, is allowed to stay and gets permanent residency after one year.
All those factors make it highly unlikely that Cubans will be celebrating on the streets of Havana anytime soon. While many of us would like to see a democratic revolution in Cuba, we can't be in "denial" about the stark differences between Havana and Cairo.
