Dolphins Vs. Lions 2014: NFL Week 10 Picks, NFL Odds
By Abraham Gutierrez
Sunday’s interconference showdown between the (5-3) Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions is without question one of the premier match-ups of Week 10. Sitting in third place in the AFC East, the Fins come in riding a three-game win streak, are 4-1 in their last 5 games, and have been outstanding on the road, sporting a recording of 3-1.
The Lions, meanwhile, not only sit atop the NFC North, but match Miami stride-for-stride – also having won three in a row, four of their last five, and are 3-1 at Ford Field (home). Nevertheless, that’s about as far as the similarities go, as against-the-spread (ATS) trends and Week 10 general consensus figures tell a very compelling story.
For starters, unlike last week’s game against San Diego, the Fins would be the ones to defy the odds in order to extend their win streak to four games. According to NFL Week 10 point spreads, the visiting Dolphins (+3) are listed as three-point underdogs against the hosting Lions (-3), and the OVER/UNDER is set at a combined total of 44 points.
Before getting into the meat and potatoes of how these teams matchup against the spread, it’s worth noting that Miami has an ATS record of 5-3-0 and Detroit is 4-4-0 through eight games.
As far as how betting action has gone in the early part of the week, a surprising 59 percent of the population believes that Jim Caldwell and company are best equipped to cover the aforementioned (-3) NFL Week 10 spread.
In contrast, ATS General Consensus statistics show that only 41 percent of bettors believe that Joe Philbin’s club is capable of going into Motown and either stun the Lions, or worst-case scenario, lose by less than a field goal (+3).
Some might find these one-sided figures a bit suspect, especially because on paper, Miami matches up very well against Detroit. The Fins come in with an edge in four of the seven major statistical categories utilized to determine how teams matchup against one another.
In this instance, the visitors hold a statistical edge over the home team when it comes to points per game, yards gained, special teams and penalties. On the flip side, the felines do a better job than their counterparts in the following facets of the game: yards allowed, time of possession and Red Zone efficiency.
When it comes to the point-total, one can infer that most people expect this to be a high scoring affair. At the present time, the OVER accounts for 66 percent of all wagers, compared to only 34 percent pro-UNDER bets. However, those statistics are particularly surprising considering Miami’s defense ranks third (18.9 ppg) and Detroit is the very best in the NFL, surrendering a stingy 15.8 points per game.
While there are hundreds of ATS trends to consider for this NFL Week 10 showdown, one would like to point to two that favor the underdogs: Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings versus Detroit and the road team is 3-1-1 ATS the last 5 times these teams have crossed paths.
Additional NFL Week 10 ATS Trends To Consider
- Dolphins are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
- Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
- Lions are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games in November.
- Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up win.
- Lions are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 10.
CBS Sports Free NFL Week 10 ATS Picks: Miami Dolphins +3 & UNDER 44 Points
For more Dolphins news and updates, visit Dolphins Central.
Abe Gutierrez is a criminal justice admin whose love for sports led him to become a writer and editor. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com and its partners. His work can be found on Examiner.com. .
