Dolphins Vs. Bills Predictions: NFL Week 9 Picks And ATS Stats
By Abraham Gutierrez
While the 3-4 Buffalo Bills have been enjoying their bye, the 3-4 Miami Dolphins have been looking for a way to regroup following a brutal week. Not only did the Fins fail to show up against the undefeated New England Patriots, but the loss of Cameron Wake for the remainder of the season has certainly dampen the mood. Nevertheless, as they say in show business, "the show must go on," and Miami will be on the road looking to avoid losing the season series to Rex Ryan's Bills.
Dolphins vs. Bills 2015 NFL Week 9 Betting Info
Considering this will be the 104th meeting between these bitter rivals, there's no shortage of betting information and ATS statistics to review. The first order of business is establishing the most recent point spreads for this NFL Week 9 clash. As of Thursday morning, the Buffalo Bills are listed as three-point favorites over the Dolphins, the OVER/UNDER tallies 44 points and (straight-up) money lines go as follows: Miami (+135) vs. Buffalo (-155).
Dolphins vs. Bills 2015 NFL (Head-to-Head) ATS Statistics
In short, there are a few definitive things to take away from this matchup that immediately stand out (against the spread). First, defense is sure to play a role in the final score, especially at Ralph Wilson Stadium, where the UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings there, as well as 5-2 in the Fins-Bills last seven head-to-heads overall. Second, and most importantly, betting on Miami seems like a risky proposition versus Buffalo, even as three-point underdogs.
ATS stats show that the Dolphins come in having lost eight of their last 11 games in Buffalo and are just 1-4 in their last five attempts to defeat the Bills. Also worth noting is that the betting favorite is 7-2 during a nine-game span, and that the home team, which in this instance is Buffalo, comes into Week 9 sporting a 5-2 mark in seven of their most recent meetings.
Miami vs. Buffalo 2015 NFL (Week 9) ATS Consensus Analysis
In spite of all the warning signs, consensus statistics show that most bettors believe the Fins will return the favor by stunning the Bills in front of their home crowd. That's because, as of Thursday morning, 53 percent of ATS wagers are stacked on Dan Campbell's side with a field-goal cushion. In contrast, 47 percent of the betting population disagrees, as picking Ryan's team to defeat Miami by a minimum of four points seems like a good idea.
As far as point-total projections for this NFL Week 9 battle go, it appears that most folks also disagree with the aforementioned trends, as they don't see this as a defensive struggle. At the present time, 56 percent of wagers registered depict these clubs eclipsing the 44-point mark by going OVER, while only 44 percent of the action has been pro-UNDER bets.
Smart Money Lies On Dolphins' As Road Dogs
Fortunately for Fins fans, not everything points to Miami dropping to 3-5 on the year. In fact, there's plenty of evidence to suggest this team is equipped to cover the spread based on the way they've performed as of late. First, there's the fact that the Dolphins are 5-1 in their last six games played in the month of November. Second, this team appears to peak around this time every year, as they come in with a record of 6-2 in their last eight contests played in Week 9.
There are also some areas for concern for Bills fans, which also suggest Campbell & Co. will cover the spread come Sunday afternoon. Recent ATS trends dictate the Bills are 2-5 in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points their last time out. This team is also just 1-5 in home games against teams with losing records, and finally, unlike Miami, the Bills are winless (0-4-1) in their five most recent ATS games played in Week 9.
2015 NFL Week 9 Predictions: Miami Dolphins +3
Abe Gutierrez's (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.
