Will it rain tonight and Sunday? Track the storm as it hits LA, OC and the IE
The second of two back-to-back storms Is bearing down on Southern California, but what can you expect? Meteorologist, Marina Jurica explains.
Location, Location, Location
That is something you will hear a lot of as this next storm system moves into our area with the potential for dangerous flooding. Once again, we have an atmospheric river coming down the pineapple express with tons of moisture to tap into. Ocean temperatures are 2.5 degrees warmer, which will only add to the moisture availability as this storm rolls in. Fun fact…atmospheric rivers can carry an extreme amount of moisture up to 15 times the average flow of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River! We already saw it unleash flash flooding last week in San Diego and Long Beach yesterday. So, we know what the potential is moving into this storm, with even better dynamics in place.
With back-to-back events, the ground is saturated, so the potential for flash flooding, landslides, mudslides, debris flows, etc. increases. BEING PREPARED IS KEY! We have tonight to get ready, so whatever ends up happening, everyone is safe and has a plan.
The National Weather Service is calling the system "the largest storm of the season" and is expecting the storm to have "dangerous, even life-threatening impacts."
The strong storm is expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain in the valleys and coastal communities and 6 to 12 inches in the mountains. Much of the downpour is expected to occur during a 24 to 36-hour period from Sunday into Monday.
Tracking the Low
This is very important, as the main moisture plume with this system will directly hit somewhere between the central and south coast of California which will alter who sees the most rain and has the highest risk of flooding. Right now, it looks like Ventura and LA County will be hit the hardest, and our mountain areas. This could change, so make sure to be weather aware and we will keep you updated throughout the weekend. We have a strong jet overhead, a strengthening low, deep sub-tropical/tropical moisture to tap into, and instability. All the ingredients are here to make this a potentially dangerous set-up, now we wait to see how this unfolds.
Timing of the rain
Starting late Saturday night post 11pm into Sunday morning 6am we will see the system track from Santa Barbara into Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Throughout the day on Sunday, we can see bands of heavy rain as the storm tracks further south. By 8pm Sunday, we should see the bulk of area seeing rain. This is when the system looks to stall out and stay in place Sunday overnight into Monday. Where this system stalsl is critical when it comes to tracking who will see 3" to 5" of rain and who could see 6" or even much more into double digits. As this system slows, Monday looks to be another day of heavy bands of rain, winds up to 50mph, and flooding concerns. The storm looks to last into Tuesday, but with the gates open, we could system after system move into our area for the rest of the week. So super-saturation and flooding look to be an extended concern next week.
Be prepared, get a kit ready to go if you live in a low-lying area or flood prone region. Under no circumstances drive into an area with water. Turn around and find an alternate route.
The south facing side of mountains will get hit the hardest with flooding, mudslides, rick slides and debris flows.
Elevation snow will start at 6000' and then drop to 3000' just like yesterdays storm. DO NOT drive into the higher elevations unless absolutely necessary. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate late Saturday through the day on Sunday.
Remember to keep on top of the forecast as we have team coverage through the weekend as we prepare for the storm and throughout the storm as it moves in. Stay safe and be smart while on the roads.
-Meteorologist Marina Jurica
