Study: Legal Pot Unlikely To Curb Drug Gang Profits
LOS ANGELES (CBS) — A new study says that the push to legalize marijuana in California is not likely to dramatically reduce profits for Mexican drug traffickers.
The only scenario in which legalization in California could substantially reduce drug gang profits is if high-grade California-grown marijuana is smuggled to other states at prices below that of Mexican supplies, according to a study from the Santa Monica-based RAND Drug Policy Research Center.
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Mexican pot sold in California accounts for 2-4 percent of cartel profits, according to the report. Still, Mexican drug gangs generate $1 billion to $2 billion annually from exporting marijuana to the United States and selling it to wholesalers at prices far below competitors.
"Legalizing marijuana in California would not appreciably influence the Mexican drug trafficking organizations and the related violence, unless exports from California drive Mexican marijuana out of the market in other states," said Beau Kilmer, the study's lead author and co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center.
"If that happens, then legalization could reduce some of the Mexican drug violence in the long run," he said. "But even then, legalization may not have much impact in the short run."
On Nov. 2, voters statewide will decide Proposition 19, also known as the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010. If passed by a simple majority, it would authorize local jurisdictions to regulate and tax the cultivation and sale of marijuana.
Such activities would remain illegal in jurisdictions that do not opt-in. The measure would also make it legal for those aged 21 and older to grow pot on a 5-by-5-foot plot and possess, process, share or transport up to an ounce of marijuana.
The RAND study disputes the claim that marijuana accounts for 60 percent of gross drug export revenues of Mexican drug-trafficking organizations. RAND's analysis instead suggests that 15-26 percent is a more likely range.
Given that California accounts for about 14 percent of the nation's marijuana use, this suggests that if marijuana legalization in California only influences the California market, it would have a small effect on drug trafficking organizations -- cutting total drug export revenues by perhaps 2-4 percent.
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