Is Todd Gurley Experiencing A Sophomore Slump?
By Sam McPherson
One of the more disappointing developments of the Rams' first season back in Los Angeles this year has been the performance of running back Todd Gurley. After the team selected him 10th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, Gurley didn't disappoint as a rookie with this 4.8 yards-per-carry average and 10 touchdowns in only 13 games.
Fast forward to 2016, though, and it's been a whole different story for the second-year back many experts believed would be the most dominant rusher in the league. Gurley is averaging just 3.0 yards per attempt this year through seven games, and he's on pace for just 921 yards, which would be about 200 fewer yards than last season.
What's going on with Gurley?
Sophomore slump
Those dreaded words might not often be associated with NFL running backs, but in this case, it could be true. Every defense knows Gurley can beat it, so opposing teams are prepared for him every game this year. It makes it a lot easier to stack the line against the run when the opponent knows the Rams have a weakness at the quarterback position.
Gurley's best game this year in terms of pure yardage was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when he ran for 85 yards, but he needed 27 carries to get there. His best game in terms of average per carry was against the Detroit Lions, when Gurley averaged 4.1 yards per attempt. Yet he only received 14 carries in that game.
In comparison, last year the Rams star RB had five different games where he ran for at least 128 yards each time, and in seven different gams, he also averaged more than four yards per carry as well. The domination displayed in 2015 just hasn't found its way onto the field in 2016.
The QB reality
Los Angeles is actually getting better QB performance this year from Case Keenum (77.5 QB rating) than it did last year from the combination of Nick Foles and Keenum (74.1). The difference isn't dramatic, of course, and those QB ratings are not stellar, either. What this all means is that the Rams need better quarterbacking in order for Gurley to be most effective.
This is the simple truth for any NFL running back: If the QB play is poor, the running game isn't going to work well, either. In the modern game, most teams pass first to open up the opportunity for the ground game. While Keenum hasn't been terrible, he also hasn't been able to consistently take advantage of opportunities presented by the defenses stacking against the run.
Keenum's 10 interceptions so far—even if some of them have not been his fault—in just seven games means he isn't effectively identifying open receivers, and some of that goes on the wideouts themselves. They have to be able to beat the man coverage afforded to them through the defensive attempts to stop Gurley.
Coaching staff decisions
The Rams spent the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft on California QB Jared Goff, but he hasn't played a down yet this season. With Gurley and Goff, the organization has invested high draft picks on major talent, and that talent has to find its way onto the field if the Rams are going to be successful.
After Sunday's loss in London to the New York Giants where Keenum threw four INTs, head coach Jeff Fisher made it clear the team was sticking with its QB through the bye week. While Goff may be inexperienced, he has the talent to succeed, and if the Rams are struggling anyway with Keenum, why not give Goff the chance to learn on the job?
A lot of No. 1 overall draft picks have put up decent QB rating numbers as rookies, and if the Rams coaching staff hasn't done an adequate job preparing Goff to play in the NFL, then maybe they shouldn't be NFL coaches.
