What Will It Take For The Wings To Land Steven Stamkos?
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
The biggest offseason story in the NHL is shaping up to be the Steven Stamkos sweepstakes, a contest in which the Red Wings figure to be prominent players. It's all dependent on Stamkos actually reaching unrestricted free agency, of course, but that seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. The Lightning and Stamkos have had halting negotiations (at best) regarding a contract extension in the past year or so, so it's highly unlikely the two sides suddenly strike a deal in the next three days.
If (when) Stamkos hits the open market on July 1, let the bidding war commence. The 26-year-old goal-scoring machine is set to reel in a gargantuan contract, one that may make him the highest-paid hockey player ever. NHL teams have veered toward offseason prudence of late, avoiding the kind of blank-check offers that can have crippling long-term consequences, but given Stamkos' age, track record and flat-out ability, expect general managers to throw caution to the wind.
Wings' GM Ken Holland won't be an exception. With the retirement of Pavel Datsyuk and the continuing decline of Henrik Zetterberg, the team is in dire need of a frontline center. Holland was able to unload Datsyuk's 2016-17 cap hit with a shrewd draft-day trade, freeing up $6.4 million in cap space after taking into account the contract Detroit took on in return. Factor in the $1.6 million increase in next season's cap ceiling, and the Wings have over $19 million to spend heading into free agency.
Holland still has some work to do on the peripheral parts of the team's roster, namely resigning restricted free agents Danny DeKeyser, Alexey Marchenko and Teemu Pulkkinen. He also has to determine how to proceed with pending UFAs Darren Helm and Kyle Quincey. Oh, and if the Wings want anyone other than Jimmy Howard starting in goal next season – which they should – they'll have to strike a deal with Petr Mrazek or invest money in someone else. So that $19 million-worth of cap space isn't just budgeted for one player. A heavy portion of it, though? You bet.
The Wings' main competitors for Stamkos appear to be the Maple Leafs, the Sabres and, yes, the Lightning. (The Bruins have been named here, as well.) It bears repeating that Stamkos has held firm on his preference to remain in Tampa Bay, where he finds himself on a legitimate Cup contender surrounded by young talent. That's part of the problem for the team's GM, Steve Yzerman, as the money he has to set aside for players like Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson (among others) will detract from what he can offer Stamkos. Yzerman's one leg up on the competition is the ability to propose an eight-year deal that no other team could match. Still, if Stamkos is to resign with the Bolts it will be at the cost of making more money elsewhere.
And let's be honest: the dollar signs reign supreme here. According to numerous reports, the Lighting have offered Stamkos a seven- to eight-year deal, worth somewhere from $8 to $8.5 million per season. He will undoubtedly command more on the open market – and we'll get to that number in a moment – and thus the question is whether that gap in potential earnings is enough to draw Stamkos away from an ideal competitive situation. What's the Stanley Cup – or the chance to win one, anyway – worth in his eyes?
That's a question only he can answer, and his decision will spell out his guiding desires as a professional athlete. It will also speak to Stamkos' level of self-belief, the strength of his conviction, one way or another, that he is capable of pushing a lesser team into serious Cup contention. The Wings, in that sense, are an interesting contrast to Buffalo and Toronto. They'll likely be the most competitive of the three in the immediate future, but it's hard to project where this team will be four or five years from now. The Sabres and Leafs, on the other hand, seem well-situated for continued success as their young players come of age. And though Stamkos certainly doesn't want to waste a precious season or two of his prime, he's not exactly motivated by a sense of professional mortality.
For the Wings, the most critical step in recruiting Stamkos will be selling him on their competitive outlook. Through moves they make in the coming days and players they can point to within the organization, they have to present themselves as a team with a plan. It's no secret the Wings are in NHL limbo at the moment, caught between true inferiority and actual championship contention. And in eschewing the full-scale rebuild for an on-the-fly retooling, they risk trending toward the former group more suddenly than the latter. Stamkos has to be convinced otherwise.
If Stamkos moves on from Tampa Bay, he will almost certainly become the highest-paid player in the league. Only Alex Ovechkin has more goals than Stamkos' 312 since his 2008-09 rookie season, and the next-closest player, Corey Perry, isn't all that close. Stamkos is in a very exclusive group when it comes to putting the puck in the net, and nothing is valued in today's low-scoring league quite like a proven sniper.
The contracts with the highest average annual value in the NHL belong to Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, both of whom cost the Blackhawks $10.5 million per season against the cap. The two signed matching eight-year, $84-million deals in 2015, surpassing Ovechkin as the highest-paid players in the league. (The only reason Ovechkin isn't making more than the $10 million per season he makes is because his contract is a ridiculous 13 years in length.) It's already been suggested that the Sabres are willing to approach $12 million in AAV, likely resulting in an aggregate salary of $84 million over seven years. Is Stamkos, a two-time 50+ goal scorer, perennial All-Star and unmitigated force on the ice, worth that kind of commitment?
For the Red Wings, a team struggling to maintain a long history of playoff success and desperate for a shot in the veins, it would certainly seem so. We'll find out in three short days if Ken Holland agrees.
