Verlander And Zimmermann, Killed By Good Teams, Must Improve For Tigers To Make Playoffs
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
Over the next few days, we'll be taking a look at what the Tigers need to do to make a second-half push. Qualifying for the postseason has always been their most immediate goal, and anything less would be a definitive failure. They're currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in – 6.5 games behind in the division and four back in the wild card – but time remains for them to make up the ground. Here's one thing that must change for that to happen.
If there are two Tigers that epitomize the team's Jekyll-and-Hyde personality, it's Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann. The presumptive leaders of the rotation entering the season, they've looked dominant at times, helpless at others. And their inconsistency follows a disconcerting pattern: against bad teams, they've been great; against good teams, well…you know the rest.
The splits are more alarming than you might imagine. Verlander and Zimmermann have made a combined 10 starts against the top ten run-scoring teams in the league. Together, they are 0-7 with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Verlander, to be fair, has absorbed a couple of hard-luck losses, but the fact remains that the Tigers' presumptive aces haven't beat a single top-ten offense through the first three months of the season.
Against the bottom ten scoring teams in the league, on the other hand, they've been lights-out. In a combined 18 starts, J.V and Zimm are 15-0 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Zimmermann's numbers are particularly inflated in this regard. Of his eight wins this season, all of them have come against teams in offensive purgatory.
There's nothing wrong with feasting on inferior competition. The Tigers have done this all season long, and it is absolutely necessary to collect the wins the schedule lays out for you. Keep your head above water against the best teams, the thinking goes, and the rest stands to take care of itself.
But Verlander and Zimmermann have sunk like cannon balls against their hard-hitting opponents. Some starts have been better – read: less awful – than the rest; others have been even worse. Against Toronto on June 8, Zimmerman allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings. Verlander matched this performance against Cleveland on June 26, raising Zimm a run in the process. That was the outing in which he gave up four long-balls in the same inning.
The most troubling aspect of this trend is that it's cost the Tigers against they teams they're chasing. Verlander and Zimmermann have faced the Indians four times and the Blue Jays twice, going 0-5 in the process. That's without even mentioning their three starts against Texas and Baltimore, two more clubs ahead of Detroit in the playoff race.
The Tigers' remaining schedule won't make things easier for the pitchers. They still have three more games against each of the Mariners, Rangers and Orioles, and seven a piece against the Indians and the bashing, bruising, bulldozing Red Sox. That's 23 games against some of the MLB's heaviest hitting teams, all of whom are directly involved in the AL playoff race. One way or another, Verlander and Zimmerman are going to play a role.
That's a nerve-racking notion for Tigers' fans. The leaders of a team's rotation are supposed to inspire confidence against imposing lineups. They're supposed to elevate their performance in the face of a challenge. But when the big bats are brandished in the opposing dugout, Verlander and Zimmerman have been nothing but piñatas.
There's still time for redemption. Verlander, for one, is a rise-to-the-occasion type of pitcher. It would hardly be a shock to see him revert to his Cy-Young self down the stretch. Zimmermann is more of an unknown, but the Tigers have to believe that he'll get back on track in the second half upon recovering him a neck injury.
Beyond that, the Tigers can take solace in this: their last series of the season is against the Atlanta Braves, the lowest scoring team in the league. If they're still on the verge of the playoffs, surely Verlander and Zimmermann can pitch them through.
