Tigers Need Starter More Than Reliever
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
The Tigers may or may not be in contention at the trade deadline, they may or may not be buying, and they may or may not target a top-flight pitcher.
These uncertainties are hardly the reflection of a stable roster. Rather, they speak to an organization that is heavy on salary and light on prospects. Though the Tigers could certainly benefit from adding another arm, they may not be able to afford it.
But for the fun of it, let's say GM Al Avila has the flexibility to pull off one big trade. Let's say he can make a serious upgrade to either the rotation or the bullpen, but not both. And let's say that upgrade will come in the form of a top-three starter or a proven reliever.
Which need should the Tigers address?
"I think we're going to go as far as our pitching takes us," Brad Ausmus said over the weekend, "and starting pitching is a huge part of that."
Indeed. And that doesn't bode well for the Tigers, who can rely on two of their five healthy starting pitchers at the moment. Outside of Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander, the rotation is full of question marks and holes, making it very hard for the team to sustain momentum. The Tigers are inviting a loss to the Twins tonight – the worst club in the American League – simply by giving Anibal Sanchez the ball.
Sanchez is obviously in a purgatory of his own. He's only in the rotation because Jordan Zimmermann and Daniel Norris are injured, and one of those two will displace him soon. But the banishment of Sanchez to the bullpen – or better yet, to the waiver wire – won't cure the Tigers' rotation. It is ailed more deeply than that.
Mike Pelfrey seems to be teetering on the edge of collapse every time he pitches. Daniel Norris is a nice young prospect with a great arm, but his transition to the big leagues has left something to be desired. The same could be said of Matt Boyd. And though Jordan Zimmermann figures to stabilize the rotation upon his return, it's hard to know whether he'll be the dominant pitcher of April or the desultory one of June.
Thus we're back to Fulmer and Verlander, and a mess of unknowns.
That won't cut it for the Tigers, not with the team on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. They need to make up significant ground in the second half of the season and the rotation's footing is flimsy at best: one step back for every step forward. And where the bullpen could be improved mightily from within – cough, Joe Jimenez, cough – there are no such saviors for the Tigers' rotation in Toledo or Erie.
But if Avila is willing to look beyond his own system, there are plenty of options. Lefty Rich Hill has drawn heavy interest in Oakland, and it was reported that the Tigers sent scouts to watch his most recent start on Sunday. (Hill lasted only five pitches before being removed from the game due to a blister.) The resurgent 36-year-old is 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA for the A's this season, with the underlying stats to suggest his performance is sustainable. Hill, an impending free agent, would likely cost the Tigers a top-three prospect – think Beau Burrows or Christin Stewart – along with the requisite smaller pieces.
Surrendering prospects of that caliber for a three-month rental would be tough to swallow. But there are pitchers available who are controllable moving forward, even if their numbers don't quite stand up to Hill's. The Rays are actively shopping Matt Moore (4.33 ERA), and Jake Odorizzi (4.39 ERA). The Angels are listening to offers for Hector Santiago (4.27 ERA) and recent A.L. pitcher of the week Matt Shoemaker (4.08 ERA).
A less discussed but equally intriguing name is Jimmy Nelson, the 27-year-old right-hander for the Brewers who has pitched to a 3.39 ERA over 19 starts in 2016. He won't become an unrestricted free agent until 2021, and he'd be a great fit as the Tigers' fourth starter for the rest of this season. The 6'6 Nelson is enjoying a breakout year, and would be worth a top-tier prospect and a couple of second-tier ones given the Tigers' ability to control him moving forward.
That's the long-term view. The short-term view is that the Tigers desperately need to strengthen the back-end of their rotation. It's not so much about adding to the dependability of Fulmer and Verlander, but subtracting from the uncertainty of Pelfrey, Norris, Boyd and, heaven forbid, Sanchez. The fewer starts those four make, the better.
