Tigers' First-Half Report Card
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
In a roller-coaster first half of the season, the Tigers covered the entire competitive spectrum. At times, they looked like legitimate playoff contenders, most notably for their ability to pound the ball to a pulp. At others, they looked like middle-class flotsam, most particularly for their inability to keep the ball in the yard.
Between the good and the bad, the Tigers are 46-43 heading into the All-Star break – relevant, to be sure, but flirting with the reverse. They are in second place in the A.L. Central, 6.5 games behind the Indians, and fourth place in the wild card standings, four games behind second-place Toronto.
After a recent road trip, one on which the Tigers finished 4-6, Brad Ausmus was asked to characterize his team's play. "Blah," the manager replied. The same could be said for the Tigers' first half.
As descriptive as that is – specificity never was one of Ausmus' strengths – we'll take the time to go a bit deeper. Here is the Tigers' first-half report card, graded against their own expectations of making the playoffs.
Offense: B-minus
True, the Tigers rank in the top ten of nearly every major offensive category. And true, they have four players – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler – within range of 30+ homeruns/100+ RBI. But the offense has been far too streaky for a team with playoff expectations.
Though the Tigers have scored double-digit runs nine times this season, they have scored two or fewer twice as often. On any given night, against any given pitcher, the offense is liable to either explode or self-destruct. This all-or-nothing trend has made it incredibly hard for the team to sustain momentum and build meaningful winning streaks.
Interestingly, the June injury to J.D. Martinez hasn't put much of a drag on the team's run production. That's been due in large part to Steven Moya, who has blasted five home runs in 16 games since filling in for Martinez in right field. How Ausmus works both of them into the lineup upon Martinez' return – if he chooses to at all – will be interesting to watch.
The pop is obviously there for the Tigers, but they need to be more consistent at the plate moving forward.
Starting Pitching: C
It's no secret the Tigers are a team founded on offense. In that light, the pitching staff isn't expected to move mountains. Where some clubs rely on their starting rotation to win games, Detroit only asks that it keeps them in games. That's a misguided approach to begin with, and it hasn't exactly served the Tigers well.
Detroit's starting rotation ranks 17th in the majors with a 4.60 ERA and 20th with a .270 batting average against. Those aren't awful numbers within the context of the team's expectations, but they're heavily aided by the performance of one Michael Fulmer. Outside of Fulmer, the only Tigers' starting pitcher with an ERA south of 4.00 is Jordan Zimmerman, who checks in at 3.95. In fact, remove Fulmer's numbers entirely, and the rotation's ERA balloons to 5.04 and its batting average against jumps to .280.
There is something to be said, of course, for the emergence of Fulmer. The burly righty has been the Tigers' best pitcher since the middle of May and looks to be their ace of the future. But the gain represented by Fulmer has been nullified by the demise of Anibal Sanchez, who has been every bit as bad as Fulmer has been good.
What the Tigers' rotation needs to show in the second half is an improvement against heavy-hitting lineups. Zimmermann and Verlander, in particular, have been hot and cold depending on the opposition, a pattern that needs to level out in order for this team to make the playoffs.
Bullpen: C-minus
To be quite honest, C-minus feels like a generous grade for a bullpen that ranks 26th in the league with a 4.53 ERA. It has been a white-knuckled adventure since the start of the season for the Tigers' relievers, who have taken turns being reliable and fallible.
But the discovery of Francisco Rodriguez as a steady closer redeems some of the bullpen's larger struggles. The Tigers have long been in search of a lockdown arm in the ninth inning, and the affable K-Rod has filled that hole. He has 24 saves in 26 chances, easing much of the stress that Tigers' fans have associated with late-game leads.
Outside of K-Rod, though, the bullpen is fickle and unsettled. There isn't a clear path from the starters to the closer, mostly because the relievers' effectiveness varies by game. Alex Wilson, Justin Wilson, Kyle Ryan, Shane Greene and Bruce Rondon have all been great at times, treacherous at others. Asking any one of them to protect a lead or preserve a tie is an uncertain proposition.
The Tigers will need to fortify the bullpen to make a second-half run, and the answer may be waiting in Double-A. Flame-throwing righty Joe Jimenez has made quite the impression for the Erie Sea Wolves, racking up 27 strikeouts in 15 innings with a 1.76 ERA. The Tigers are wary of rushing him to the majors, but they may not have a choice.
Overall: C+
Look, for all the angst surrounding this team, the Tigers are still very much in the playoff picture. They're within striking distance of the Indians despite losing 11 of 12 against them to start the season, while the wild card race is anyone's for the taking. There's a sense the Tigers have yet to really play to their potential, and that it's only a matter of time before they do.
The danger with that assumption is that it's based on the past performance of an aging roster. The Tigers don't lack for star power, and on paper they appear capable of more than what they've shown. But players like Cabrera, Martinez and Verlander are all trending in the wrong direction, and it's hard to see them reversing that decline as the season presses on.
The players that are most likely to thrust the Tigers into the playoffs aren't the ones the fans have counted on in the past. Instead of Miggy and V-Mart, the offense will need to be sparked by Castellanos and a presumably-refreshed J.D. Martinez. Instead of Verlander, the rotation will need to be anchored by Fulmer.
The Tigers' fate will ultimately be decided by their ability to beat good teams and win on the road. They've been gangbusters at home against inferior competition through the first half of the season – and good on them for that – but they've struggled against stiffer opponents, especially away from Comerica Park. Good teams have the ability to rise to the occasion when the schedule warrants it; we'll find out what the Tigers are made of in the months to come.
