Take Fulmer's Hot Streak With A Grain Of Salt. Here's Why.
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
You've seen all the numbers by now.
28.1 consecutive scoreless innings. 13 hits versus 30 strikeouts in his past five outings. Four consecutive starts of six-plus shutout innings while surrendering three hits or less. They're all starting to blend together, because they all speak to the same fact: recently, Michael Fulmer has pitched really, really well.
But here's what those stats neglect to mention, here's what's being overlook in the rush to anoint Fulmer the Tigers' de facto ace: in this otherworldly stretch of pitching, the rookie right-hander has yet to face the same team twice.
And until he does so, his success must be taken with a grain of salt.
After his win over the Blue Jays last week at Comerica Park, manager Brad Ausmus was asked what the next step is for Fulmer in his major-league development.
"He's going to have to go through the league a couple times," Ausmus said without hesitation. "There's going to be adjustments that have to be made. There's going to be times when he doesn't have his best stuff and he's going to have to learn how to pitch a little bit more."
It's not as if hitters are stepping into the batter's box against Fulmer entirely blind. Surely they've watched video and read scouting reports on the rookie, familiarizing themselves with his fastball-slider-changeup arsenal before facing him live.
But nothing compares to first-hand experience. Nothing educates hitters like seeing a pitcher for themselves. Maybe, in his second time around the league, his slider won't seem so sharp. Perhaps his changeup won't look so unhittable.
MLB hitters are the best in the world. They know how to make adjustments. So far, Fulmer has had the upper hand. But the most revealing test will be his ability to succeed without the benefit of unfamiliarity, without the protection of being new.
It also bears mention that Fulmer hasn't exactly taken the mound against the most fearsome lineups. In his extended coming-out party, he has pitched against the Rays, Athletics, Angels, Blue Jays and Yankees. Of those teams, only Toronto ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored, and even they're having a subpar season by their hefty standards.
It won't be until his probable June 22 start against the Mariners that Fulmer takes on a top-five run-scoring offense in the MLB. And though this is projecting a bit further, it won't be until early July – either against the Rays or the Indians – that Fulmer faces a team who has seen him before.
Let's check back in on him then. If that scoreless inning streak is still intact, there is nothing we can say about Fulmer that won't be justified.
Until then, though, he is simply a talented, young pitcher whose sterling run of success has been aided by his novelty. It's only fair, to everyone involved, that we keep that in mind.
