Mike Valenti's Wednesday Watchers 8-31-11

The Rules

Couple of things to keep in mind when you listen or read the "Watchers"…please read.

1. Anyone who tells you they hit 70% or have never lost a couple in a row is a liar of biblical proportions. I will lose games. I will lose several games in a row. The goal is to hit 56% and send you home happy. If you're so good at this then why do you need my help? Open a website and start your career.

2. I try to stay away from local teams since we pick them on Fridays. I also avoid the big showdowns for the same reason. Sometimes it's not possible, like beginning or end of season. I try to find 5-games where you can get some value and a new angle.

3. Yes, I do tail teams. Each year you will see one or two teams I consistently pick for or against. It's the eyeball test as well as trends. I like picking on teams I'm comfortable with.

4. These are for fun. If you are so serious about these than find somewhere else to get picks from. Your "potato chips" are your business. Don't like a pick? Don't use it. Always laugh when people send angry email like I forced them to use all of these.

5. Find the numbers I use or don't use them at all. I search the entire net for the best lines I can find. Obviously if a number gets better, stays the course. But if you cannot find it and the current line is worse, simply move on. Nobody with a brain would ever recommend playing with an inferior line.

6. Do not call or email me telling me how right you were about your pick and how awful I am. Nobody cares. Always easy to be right when nobody tracks your picks or you wait till the game is over to pick a side. Spare me.

***SPECIAL NOTE***
I will release an early preview of picks on Tuesday night via my twitter: @MikeValenti971 that way you can hunt for lines and maybe get a better edge.
Oh, last one.
7. This is for entertainment purposes only.

And now it's time for this weeks Wednesday's Watchers

Wed. Watchers
Boise St. -3 @ Georgia (at Georgia Dome)—Plain and simple. I'm not going against Boise. All they do is come out and win big openers. Yes I realize they got bombed in 2005 against these same Bulldogs but this is a better program today. Georgia has questions everywhere, especially on defense where their new 3-4 scheme was a disaster last year. Should be better but opening up versus Kellen Moore is not an easy task.

South Carolina vs. ECU OVER 61—ECU gave up nearly 44-points per game last season and there are few signs it's going to get much better now. South Carolina is loaded and should rack up 40+ points. ECU runs Texas Tech version of the spread and can score at will. Expect a sloppy high scoring affair.

USF +10 @ Notre Dame—I think Notre Dame will have a very nice season but it doesn't mean they will hammer each opponent. I'm taking a live dog here in USF with experience at the QB spot and hoping for a solid day. First game can be sloppy and giving double digits versus a bowl caliber team just isn't good business.

Northwestern +3 @ Boston College—the health of Wildcats QB Dan Persa is the big question but if he plays NW would be a 6 point favorite. They have experience everywhere and the defense should take a step forward. I think they are the better team regardless of who lines up under center.
Baylor +6 vs. TCU—TCU is a name. Period. MAJOR losses including that of their unquestioned leader Andy Dalton force me to go against them here. Can't help but wonder how much this number is based on public's last image of TCU…in the Rose Bowl. I'm not buying.