DTM's Bagels And Lox: NFL Championship Sunday Edition
By Dan Leach
Follow Dan on Twitter @DTMLEACH
As the NFL season heats up so does the DTM Prediction machine, which will be here for you each and every week to help you win your pick-em-pool, embarrass your friends, and just become a more whole football fan and human being.
I will take a look at five games each week with the best value and rate them on a sliding "Bagels and Lox" 1-10 scale. This is where it gets serious as Conference Championship Sunday comes straight at ya.
Who will make it the first cold weather outdoor Super Bowl at the new Met-O-Lands on February 2 ... and away we go!
NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER 3:00 PM EST TV CBS (BRONCOS -5 TOTAL 57 )
You have to give credit to the Pats for their dominating win in the end over the upstart Colts. I still feel like New England, even with Terrific Tom, Darth Hoodie, and a resurgent LeGarrette "don't Smoke the" Blount are doing it with smoke and mirrors. Denver has been working towards this moment from the second the final gun sounded last year in Baltimore.
Peyton Manning is arguably having the best season a QB ever has had and this is a team that protects its home turf almost as good as the Seahawks do over in the NFC losing just once at Invesco this season.
The Pats have deficiencies on D all over the place and now with a healthy Wes Welker making for a scary Broncos WR core and a back-to-life RB in Knowshon Moreno the New England is simply going to be overwhelmed. Brady will have his moments and there is no doubt that the Pats are running the ball extremely well.
The bottom line is - this game could get out of hand early as Denver just has too much in all three phases and Manning will for once get the better of Brady in a rivalry that has really been one-sided.
ATS Stats To Know-
PATS -Teams that score 40+ points in playoffs 4-22 next game ATS
N.E 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games
BRONCOS- 29th straight game Denver has been favored (24-4 straight up and 19-9 ATS during the streak)
Denver at home -26-40 ATS since 2006
8.6 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE BRONCOS -5 DTM RIGHT AT YA PREDICTION DENVER 38-20
SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE 6:30 PM PM EST TV FOX (SEAHAWKS -3.5 TOTAL 40)
The Niners are simply built to win on the road and have done nothing but prove that over the last two playoff seasons. QB Colin Kaepernick continues to show why he is fast becoming transcendent at the position and the Niners defense completely engulfed the Carolina Panthers and Cam Cam Newton last week.
The only problem....they have to travel to Seattle and the most hostile environment in the NFL. Yes the Hawks lost to AZ late in the season, but only have lost once at Century Link field in the past two years. They have simply dominated San Fran at home over the past two seasons outscoring them 71-13 when they have played close to the Space Needle.
Russell Wilson has been struggling a little bit as of late, but these are the moments you live for and he will be razor focused today as Seattle has had one mission all year and that is to get to NYC/NJ for Super Bowl 48.
Look for this to be a slug fest throughout, but for the Hawks to use a late second half surge to put this one away on the legs and arm of Russell (Duh-Dunt Duh-Dunt) Wilson who will be the part of at least three second half TD's on the ground and through the air. The two best teams will end up in the Super Bowl as Seattle punches its tickets in the twilight of the crisp Seattle air Sunday night.
ATS Stats To Know-
NINERS-San Fran only lost 2 of last 15 games ATS
Niners have not lost against the spread in their last 9 road games
San Fran 11-1-1 ATS vs teams wit win percentage better than .700
SEAHAWKS- Starting in 2005 68% ATS at home (52-24-2)
Seattle 17-4 ATS at home following a home game
Seahawks 22-8-1 ATS in last 31 games
8 BAGELS AND LOX ON THE SEAHAWKS -3.5 DTM RIGHT AT YA PREDICTION SEATTLE 34-17
DTM'S ODDS TIDBIT OF THE WEEK-UP TO THE SECOND SUPER BOWL 48 ODDS (Assist RJ Bell)
-Seattle: +200
-Denver: +210
-San Francisco: +325
-New England: +600
Potential Super Bowl Matchup Spreads
-Denver EVEN vs Seattle
-Denver EVEN vs. San Francisco
-San Francisco -1.5 vs. New England
-Seattle -2.5 vs. New England
Season Stats
Last Week-2-2
Season to Date-43-27
Dan Leach recently circled the globe lofted high above the sky on nothing but a lawn chair, 800 helium balloons, and a dream, was the first human journalist to interview Dracula , is being blamed for the sub-zero temperatures around the Eastern United States due to his top secret work on a "Weather Machine", invented time travel when he hit his head on a port-a-potty on Oct 15, 1985, and is a finalist for the first human manned mission to former planet Pluto.
