Zawaski: Blackhawks-Lightning Stanley Cup Preview
By Jay Zawaski--
(CBS) It's been nearly two months since the Stanley Cup Playoffs began, and what a journey it's been.
First, it was the Nashville Predators and the unflappable Pekka Rinne awaiting the Blackhawks. How could Chicago consistently get pucks past the menacing man from Finland? What wizardry could be summoned to slow down the relentless attack of Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro? What body armor could withstand the punishing defense of Shea Weber, Roman Josi and Seth Jones?
Then came the "hottest team in hockey (in the calendar year)," the Minnesota Wild. Goalie Devan Dubnyk was sure to continue slamming the door on the opponent, like he had since January. American hero Zach Parise? Good luck with that, Blackhawks.
Then there were the big, bad, Anaheim Ducks, who had just knocked off perennial playoff powers Winnipeg and Calgary. Surely, "No human can withstand" the physical toll the Ducks were going to put on the shrinking violet Blackhawks. Anaheim had choked before, but it had proven playoff performer Ryan Kesler on its side. No way would that trend continue.
Now, the "electrifying" Tampa Bay Lightning come calling. Can the Blackhawks "weather" the "storm" that Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson will "rain down"? Will they be "thunderstruck" by Ben Bishop?
Snark aside, these were real concerns many of us had before these playoff series. We had seen a maddeningly inconsistent Blackhawks team over the 82 games of the regular season, and for a while, the special ingredient seemed to be missing.
Suddenly, the Blackhawks put two great performances together against the Ducks, and they're shoo-ins for their third Cup in six seasons. Is the series against Tampa Bay just a formality or do the Lightning pose a real threat to the Blackhawks?
Let's take a look at the matchup. First, here's a look at the regular-season results between the Blackhawks and Lightning, who've become the first squad in history to face an Original Six team in each round of the playoffs. The *score adjusted Corsi* follows the result, then then 5-on-5 Corsi percentage is listed
Nov. 11: Blackhawks 3, Lightning 2 (shootout)
*CHI 50.2%, TB 48.2%
CHI 52.5 %, TB 47.5%
Feb. 27: Lightning 4, Blackhawks 0
*CHI 42.2%, TB 57.8%
CHI 44.6%, TB 55.4%
The first game in Chicago was incredibly close, as evidenced by the Blackhawks' shootout win. The second game was one of the worst performances of the Blackhawks' season. The Lightning were coming off a four-day break, while the Blackhawks were playing their third game in five nights and their second since losing Patrick Kane to a broken collarbone.
**Note: For those wondering about score adjusted Corsi, Jen Lute Costella can fill us in. She explains that it weights all of the shot metric data at five-on-five or even strength by including all score situations but at different levels of importance so that it gives the truest measure of how a team performs. In other words, it takes into account how a team may play differently in protecting a lead. Score adjusted Corsi has proved to be the most predictive measure of a team's success. Give Jen LC a Twitter follow to become a smarter hockey fan.**
Tampa Bay strengths
Top-end offensive skill
Everyone knows about Stamkos. There's not a better pure goal scorer in the game than the former first overall pick. After Stamkos' slow playoff starts against the Red Wings (no goals in the seven-game series), Lightning coach Jon Cooper moved Stamkos from center to wing, and it has paid off.
Stamkos went on to score three goals and register seven points in the six-game series against Montreal and score foul goals and post seven points in the conference final against New York. He's also had great success vs the Blackhawks in his career. In nine games, Stamkos has scored 11 goals and recorded 17 points against Chicago.
He will get his points in this series, but the Blackhawks just need to minimize his impact as much as possible. Expect Jonathan Toews or Marcus Kruger to be on the ice whenever Stamkos steps over the boards.
The Lightning's scoring prowess doesn't start and end with Stamkos, either. Johnson centers the second line (aka the Triplet Line) with Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov, and he leads the entire NHL in playoff goals (12) and points (21).
Keep an eye on Kucherov as well. I really think that he could be a major player in this series.
Ryan Callahan had a 54-point regular season. His playoff performance, however, has been poor (four points in 19 games). He did have an appendectomy on May 11, which is a valid explanation for his performance so far. Callahan is a guy who could be a candidate to break out, despite his slow start.
Resume
While Cooper and the Lightning are fairly inexperienced playoff-wise, Tampa Bay has already eliminated the NHL's top (Montreal) and third-ranked (New York Rangers) defenses. Chicago is second defensively.
Tampa Bay has found a way to score against the league's most stingy defensive units. Can it continue against Chicago, which earned its second-place rating in the much deeper Western Conference?
Goaltending
Lightning goalie Ben Bishop is a giant of a man -- 6-foot-7' and 210 pounds. Don't let his size fool you, though. Bishop's agile for a goaltender of his size, and he's also a skilled puck handler. Bishop has three assists in these playoffs and four more in the regular season. He's not afraid to handle the puck outside of the crease and to make plays.
As far as stopping the puck goes, Bishop likes to challenge shooters and cut off angles. He battles hard for sightlines and loose pucks in front of him. Shots down low can be an exercise in futility for foes, as Bishop takes up so much of the net with his long legs.
With that in mind, screening him won't be incredible effective either. He can see over every player in the game not named Zdeno Chara. The Blackhawks' mantra should be to get him down and shoot high.
Tampa Bay weaknesses
Defense
Victor Hedman is one of the better defensemen in the game. He can score and defend.
From there, it's a big drop-off. Anton Stralman played in the Cup Final with the Rangers last season and brings solid overall play, but he's hardly an ideal No. 2 defenseman. Journeymen Jason Garrison, Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle assemble an adequate but unimpressive defensive corps. Of the units the Blackhawks have faced in the playoffs, this is the weakest.
Prediction
Perhaps the Blackhawks' Game 6 and 7 performances against the Ducks have me a bit cocky, but I'm not sure how the Lightning win this series. There isn't really anything Tampa Bay does better than Chicago.
Blackhawks in six for their third Stanley Cup in the past six seasons.
Jay Zawaski is the executive producer of the Spiegel and Goff Show on 670 The Score and the Blackhawks columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JayZawaski670. He will be on air for Blackhawks postgame coverage on 670 The Score following the Stanley Cup games. You can listen here.
