Zawaski: Are Predators Or Blues A Better Playoff Matchup For Blackhawks?
By Jay Zawaski--
(CBS) For the last two or three months, many have been asking who the ideal playoff opponent is for the Blackhawks. It's a question I've been asking myself, and I still don't know if I've found the answer.
For a team that has posted 102 points and 48 wins, the Blackhawks have been inconsistent and difficult to read. One night, they look like the Harlem Globetrotters on ice, skating circles around their opponents and dominating shift after shift. The next, they'll find themselves getting dominated by the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes or Dallas Stars.
This inconsistency makes the Blackhawks an extremely unpredictable team. It's difficult to project exactly how they will perform in the playoffs. Are the Blackhawks just waiting to "flip the switch" or do they have real deficiencies?
I believe the Blackhawks have some very real problems. Their overall team defensive play, their lack of blue-line depth and their recent inability to score goals are all big red flags that could cost them an extended playoff run this year. At the same time, I find it hard to bet against them. There's no doubt that these Blackhawks are weaker than the 2013-'14 Blackhawks.
That said, there's no team in the Western Conference that I would bet on to beat the Chicago in a seven-game series. See? Frustrating. Will the real Chicago Blackhawks please stand up?
There are several potential playoff opponents for the Blackhawks, as most of the Western Conference playoff positioning is unsettled. The most realistic opponents are either the Nashville Predators or the St. Louis Blues.
If the playoffs started today (Thursday), the Blackhawks would begin the playoffs against the Predators in Nashville.
Let's break down the Predators and Blues to see how the Blackhawks match up.
Nashville Predators
Strengths
Goaltending: The Predators have one of the best goaltenders in the game in Pekka Rinne, who is second in wins (41), third in goals against average (2.17) and eighth in save percentage (.923).
Team defense: The Predators also feature one of the league's best defensive duos in Shea Weber and Roman Josi. Weber is one of the best all-around defenseman in the game. With 15 goals and 30 assists, Weber is a special combination of power and finesse. Josi's enjoying the best season of his career. He has 55 points in 80 games and has grown into a solid, consistent player. Add eventual superstar Seth Jones and deadline acquisition Cody Franson to the mix, and you have a reliable and talented defenseman corps.
Up front, forwards like Matt Cullen, Mike Fisher and Paul Gaustad lead a solid group of defensive-minded forwards.
Weaknesses
Top-end scoring: Nashville's leading scorers are Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro, who both have 61 points. Forsberg is a terrific rookie, but he's unproven in the playoffs. Ribeiro has always had a ton of talent but didn't have the head to match. He's a mental lapse waiting to happen. Down the depth chart, the group of Fisher, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and James Neal can score, but none of these players are capable of carrying a team offensively.
Of the forwards mentioned, Neal is the player who should concern the Blackhawks the most. He has five goals in four games against Chicago this year and is the kind of physical power forward who can make a difference in a playoff series.
St. Louis Blues
Strengths
Offensive firepower: The Blues are second to the Dallas Stars in goals scored (242) this season among Western Conference teams. Vladimir Tarasenko (71 points), Alex Steen (62), Jaden Schwartz (62), David Backes (57), T.J. Oshie (55 pts), Paul Stastny (45) and ... the list goes on and on for Blues who are dangerous offensively. They also have the Western Conference's best power play. St. Louis can score with the best teams in the league.
Defensive depth: Unlike the Blackhawks, the Blues have three pairs of defensemen they can trust. But the Blues don't have the top-end blue line talent that the Blackhawks boast. The Blues have three solid pairs led by Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk. Barret Jackman still lurks around back there but isn't the defender he used to be.
Weaknesses
Goaltending: While neither Blues goalie is bad, pe se, they don't know who their starting goalie will be when the playoffs begin next week. Veteran Brian Elliott is 25-14-3 with a 2.27 goals against average, while backup Jake Allen is 21-7-4 with a 2.32 goals against average. Allen is also 3-1-1 in his last five starts. Regardless of who ends up getting the Game 1 start, neither goalie is playoff proven.
Themselves: The Blues have been called the Cubs of hockey over and over again. Somehow, they always seem to doom themselves. Backes, the captain, has trouble keeping his head when the team is playing poorly. Steve Ott, Ryan Reaves and Jackman will go out of their way to hit an opponent, often at the cost of their team.
If you presented the Blues roster in a neutral uniform, I'd be tempted to pick them as my Stanley Cup champion, but their history shows that they will somehow blow it and end up empty-handed (except for a couple of teeth) when the Cup is raised.
If I'm forced to choose an opponent today that the Blackhawks are better prepared for, I'd take the Blues. The Blackhawks know how to beat them in a playoff series, and I think they're in the Blues' heads a bit. If and when that series happens, the pressure will be on St. Louis to overcome their demons. We've seen how the Blues react to pressure before.
St. Louis' mental lapses aside, I feel Nashville's strengths cause big problems for Chicago. If the game doesn't flow, the Blackhawks have trouble adapting. The Predators can and will play a shut-down game and wait for the Blackhawks to make a mistake.
That's when we'll see the Blackhawks forcing passes that aren't there and turning the puck over. It's been a problem all year, and Nashville is a team that can exploit that flaw in Chicago's game.
Jay Zawaski is the executive producer of the Spiegel and Goff Show on 670 The Score and the Blackhawks columnist for CBSChicago.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JayZawaski670.
